Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers

Xapsos, M. A.; Burke, E.A.

doi:10.1007/s11207-009-9380-3

Cited by 27 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…These periodicities are also present in our reconstruction (Fig. 15), as well as the long-term modulation of approximately 6000 yr (Xapsos and Burke, 2009) (not shown). A wavelet (Morlet) power spectrum indicates that the power associated with the different cycles fluctuated somewhat during the Holocene.…”

Section: Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiancesupporting

confidence: 74%

“…The millennial-scale modulation of Q is not completely removed when applying VADM of Korte et al (2011). It is difficult to state whether the remaining long-term modulation, recently interpreted as a solar cycle (Xapsos and Burke, 2009), is of solar origin or rather related to uncertainties in reconstructed VADM.…”

Section: Results For the Solar Activity Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14C and CO2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties

2013

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Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

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Section: Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiancesupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Results For the Solar Activity Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14C and CO2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties

2013

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“…The R/S analysis, pioneered by Mandelbrot & Wallis (1969) following Hurst (1951), is of fundamental importance in describing the statistical properties of a dynamical process and provides an approach for determining whether or not a stochastic time series exhibits long-range persistence (Xapsos & Burke, 2009). Long-range persistence, also known as longterm memory or long-range correlation, is a common property of records of the variation of spatially or temporarily aggregated variables.…”

Section: Methods Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical properties of solar Hα flare activity

Deng

Xiao-juan

et al. 2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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-Magnetic field structures on the solar atmosphere are not symmetric distribution in the northern and southern hemispheres, which is an important aspect of quasi-cyclical evolution of magnetic activity indicators that are related to solar dynamo theories. Three standard analysis techniques are applied to analyze the hemispheric coupling (north-south asymmetry and phase asynchrony) of monthly averaged values of solar Ha flare activity over the past 49 years (from 1966 January to 2014 December). The prominent results are as follows: (1) from a global point of view, solar Ha flare activity on both hemispheres are strongly correlated with each other, but the northern hemisphere precedes the southern one with a phase shift of 7 months; (2) the long-range persistence indeed exists in solar Ha flare activity, but the dynamical complexities in the two hemispheres are not identical; (3) the prominent periodicities of Ha flare activity are 17 years full-disk activity cycle and 11 years Schwabe solar cycle, but the short-and mid-term periodicities cannot determined by monthly time series; (4) by comparing the non-parametric rescaling behavior on a point-by-point basis, the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Ha flare activity are estimated to be ranging from several months to tens of months with an average value of 8.7 months. The analysis results could promote our knowledge on the long-range persistence, the quasi-periodic variation, and the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Ha flare activity on both hemispheres, and possibly provide valuable information for the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity.

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“…Comparing the spectra of orbital elements and MSL, we put forward 6 common frequency bands with periods below 25 ka: 21-25 ka; 18.6-19.6 ka; 13-17 ka; 11.3-11.8 ka; 7.5-7.8 ka; 5.9-6.0 ka. Two of these bands include the periods of 6ka and 11.5 ka, the origin of which could be linked with the solar activity (Xapsos and Burke, 2009;Shopov et al 1999Shopov et al , 2001Shopov et al , 2004. Their solar activity origin can be checked by detecting discrepancy between orbital insolation and MSL variations.…”

Section: Common Millennial Cycles Of Msl Insolation and Orbital Elemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Millennial cycles of mean sea level excited by eart s orbital variations

Chapanov¹

2015

Acta Geodynamica Et Geomaterialia

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The millennial climate cycles are an important factor of global environmental changes. These cycles change the polar ice thickness during ice ages, what results in the Mean Sea Level (MSL) changes. The main cause of ice age periods are the so called Milankovich orbital cycles, generated by variations of climatic precession, eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and Earth's axial tilt with respect to its orbital plane with main periods of about 23 ka 1 , 40 ka and 100 ka, respectively. The common millennial cycles of MSL and Earth's orbit variations are studied by means of reconstructed MSL time series for the last 800 ka and insolation data of the latest orbital solution of Laskar et al. (2011). The models of the common millennial cycles of MSL and insolation variations are based on partial Fourier approximations with different period bands around 23 ka, 18ka, 11.5 ka, 7.5 ka, 6 ka and 2.3 ka, respectively. These models may help to analyze the Earth's rotation cycles caused by millennial solar activity cycles, such as Hallstatt cycles, and to point out new possible millennial cycles of the solar activity.

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Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers

Cited by 27 publications

References 11 publications

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Statistical properties of solar Hα flare activity

Millennial cycles of mean sea level excited by eart s orbital variations

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Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers

Cited by 27 publications

References 11 publications

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene &lt;sup&gt;14&lt;/sup&gt;C and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; records: implications of data and model uncertainties

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene &lt;sup&gt;14&lt;/sup&gt;C and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Statistical properties of solar Hα flare activity

Millennial cycles of mean sea level excited by eart s orbital variations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties