Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce road transport emissions and have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity.1–7 Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, EVs could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), as industry discontinues conventional production chains.8–10 Here we provide evidence that this tipping point likely lies within the next few years in lead markets of the EU and China, and potentially the US, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. We use a comprehensive dataset over the composition of car sales between 2016 and 2022, tracking 2452 models in 33 countries. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting in 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of EVs. Critically, the variance and lag-1 autocorrelation of fluctuations in ICEV sales have increased, indicating a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. Activating tipping points does not necessarily achieve a sufficiently rapid transition to meet emissions targets. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate ICEVs before 2050.