Index cases from a clinically relevant cohort of 102 Spanish families with at least 3 cases of breast and/or ovarian cancer (at least 1 case diagnosed before age 50) in the same lineage were screened for germline mutations in the entire coding sequence and intron boundaries of the breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. Overall, the prevalence of mutations was 43% in female breast/ovarian cancer families, 15% in female breast cancer families and 100% in male breast cancer families. Three recurrent mutations (185delAG, 589delCT and A1708E) explained 63% of BRCA1-related families. Early age at diagnosis of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, bilateral breast cancer, concomitant breast/ovarian cancer in a single patient and prostate cancer but not unilateral breast cancer were associated with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. Male breast cancer was associated with BRCA2 mutations. The presence of male breast cancer was the only cancer phenotype that distinguished BRCA2-from BRCA1-related families. We have developed a logistic regression model for predicting the probability of harbouring a mutation in either BRCA1 or BRCA2 as a function of the cancer phenotype present in the family. The predictive positive and negative values of this model were 77.4% and 79%, respectively (probability cutoff of 30%). The findings of our work may be a useful tool for increasing the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing in familial cancer clinics. © 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Key words: BRCA1; BRCA2; logistic regression modelCancer of the breast is the most common malignancy among women in Western countries. In 5-10% of these patients, the disease can be attributed to an inherited predisposition. 1 A linkagebased study estimated that the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 account, respectively, for 52% and 32% of all hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer families with at least 4 breast cancer cases. [2][3][4] Mutation-based studies indicated that defects in the 2 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility genes account for a varying fraction of breast cancer families in different populations. 5 The risk of breast and ovarian cancer associated with mutations in these 2 genes has been estimated, 4 and other cancer types to which mutation carriers are predisposed have been identified. 6 -9 Today, many families with a moderate number of breast and/or ovarian cancer cases seek genetic testing in familial cancer clinics. Unfortunately, current laboratory methods are costly and timeconsuming due to the fact that BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations are apparently randomly distributed over the large coding sequence of both genes. 10 A negative result does not indicate the absence of genetic predisposition in the family because PCR-based protocols do not detect genomic rearrangements and allele-specific transcription defects. Moreover, there is also evidence of other as yet unknown predisposing genes. 4 Management of these families does not defer either without testing or with a negative testing result. Ideally, one would prefer to t...