Evidence of Adaptation to Increasing Temperatures

Abstract

In times of rising temperatures, the question arises on how the human body adapts. When assumed that changing climate leads to adaptation, time series analysis should reveal a shift in optimal temperatures. The city of Vienna is especially affected by climate change due to its location in the Alpine Range in Middle Europe. Based on mortality data, we calculated shifts in optimal temperature for a time period of 49 years in Vienna with Poisson regression models. Results show a shift in optimal temperature, with optimal temperature increasing more than average temperature. Hence, results clearly show an adaptation process, with more adaptation to warmer than colder temperatures. Nevertheless, some age groups remain more vulnerable than others and less able to adapt. Further research focusing on vulnerable groups should be encouraged.

Nitrogen-Dioxide Remains a Valid Air Quality Indicator

“…As described in more detail in another study by our group [16], daily mortality declined over time until after the year 2005 and remained stable thereafter (Figure 2). During the whole observation period, beginning in 1970, an average number of about 56 daily deaths were recorded (with higher counts in winter than in summer).…”

“…While in the GAM, NO2 from both days had a significant effect on total mortality in the Poisson model, only previous-day NO2 effects remained significant (Table 2). As described in more detail in another study by our group [16], daily mortality declined over time until after the year 2005 and remained stable thereafter (Figure 2). During the whole observation period, beginning in 1970, an average number of about 56 daily deaths were recorded (with higher counts in winter than in summer).…”

“…Mortality data have been obtained from the national Austrian Statistics Institute (Statistik Austria). More details about the data structure are reported by Weitensfelder and Moshammer [16]. For each death occurring in Austria since 1 January 1970, the following information was provided: age (in years), sex, date of death, most recent place of residence (district), and primary cause of death.…”

Daylight Saving Time Transitions: Impact on Total Mortality

“…As we have reported in more detail in our previous paper [6], on average 56.4 deaths occurred per day. In spite of a growing population, the annual number of deaths declined from 1970 until about 2005 and then remained fairly stable.…”

“…Coincidentally, we were at that time investigating temporal changes in temperature-mortalityassociation [6]. For that study, we had constructed a Poisson regression model on daily all-cause mortality for the years 1970-2018 in Vienna, Austria.…”