Evidence of Asymmetries and Nonlinearity of Unemployment and Labour Force Participation Rate in Ukraine

Abstract

With respect to instability and structural changes for maintaining effective functioning of economy an important issue is to study the dynamics of processes in the labour market, including labour supply and employment. Considering negative demographic trends and an acute problem of population aging in Ukraine the article presents an empirical research of the dynamics of labour force participation and unemployment rate, as well as the correlation relationship between them in various periods of time. On the basis of threshold-disturbance moving average and threshold-disturbance autoregressive models there are elicited significant asymmetric reactions of labour force participation rate, unemployment rate and productivity to positive and negative macroeconomic shocks. For modelling the asymmetric behaviour of economic activity of population there is developed a nonlinear logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. In the result of econometric analysis there is received large estimated value of slope parameter which characterizes the smoothness of transition. This indicates that the economic activity of the population in Ukraine quickly reacts to the previous changes that took place in the labour market. In times of crisis Ukrainian households increase labour supply and show increased activity in job search in order to prevent the decline of their income.

Labor force participation in Eastern European countries: nonlinear modeling

“…Some previous research found that the labor force participation as well as other labor market indicators respond distinctive to positive and negative disturbances. Negative shocks have larger and more persisted impact on the change in economic active labor share than positive (Lukianenko and Oliskevych, 2017). Indicated asymmetry in the behavior detects the necessity of nonlinear econometric analysis and development of modern time series models to investigate the economic activity on EU labor market.…”

The reform of the higher education of Ukraine in the conditions of the military-political crisis

“…There is a large imbalance between the actual education and qualifications of workers and the needs of the labor market (Kasmin, 2014;Lukianenko and Oliskevych, 2017). Despite the fact that Ukraine ranks 7th in the world in terms of the number of citizens with a higher education, 24% of graduates of Ukrainian HEIs can't find a job in the received specialty (Chernaya, 2017).…”

“…The creation of temporary jobs for bachelors who continue to study, according to Lukianenko and Oliskevych (2017), will help to reduce informal (shadow) employment, which in Ukraine reaches 23% of the number of all workers.…”

Modeling the Impact of Intensification of Migration Processes on the Socio-Economic Stability in Ukraine

“…Проблемам моделювання міграційних процесів, стану ринку праці, соціально-економічних викликів в умовах в умовах невизначенності та глобалізаційних зрушень присвячено праці відомих українських і західних учених, зокрема В. Гейця. М. Скрипниченко [2], Л. Гур'янової [12], П. Захарченко, Т. Клебанової, О. Черняка [4], І. Лук'яненко, М. Оліскевич [21], Т. Меркулової [7], М. Негрей [9], Ч. Босвела [16] та інших.…”