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Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food‐deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co‐occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of Trichocolletes bees (Colletidae) pollinating Diuris species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co‐occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of Diuris brumalis. Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.
Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food‐deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co‐occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of Trichocolletes bees (Colletidae) pollinating Diuris species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co‐occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of Diuris brumalis. Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.
Societal Impact StatementHumans and honey bees have a long history of interaction to yield valued products and services. However, honey bees are under pressure from changes in vegetation, agricultural practices and climate change. We investigate if pasture legumes can be harnessed to support honey bees. We use a diverse set of species that originated from the Mediterranean and western Europe but are now developed as commercial cultivars for the southern Australian livestock industries. We find that pasture legumes show great promise as a means to support honey bees and suggest that further targeted research is warranted.Summary Globally, humans and honey bees (Apis mellifera) have a long history of interaction and this is now under pressure. In temperate southern Australia, exotic honey bees rely on an unstable native floral resource base, yet a diverse set of exotic pasture legume species are sown as staple rotational or permanent crops. We investigated if these pasture legumes could be strategically used to support honey bee populations for the apiary and horticulture industries in this region. A literature review on temperate pasture legumes and honey bees was undertaken and integrated with data from an Australian industry case study. Comparisons were made to the widely‐grown red clover (Trifolium pratense) and white clover (T. repens). We found that many southern Australian pasture legumes could provide significant floral resources as well as enhanced temporal and spatial stability for honey bees due to phenological variability and broad adaptation. Honey bees will likely recognise and be attracted to their flowers and other characteristics are comparable, or potentially superior, to red and white clover, such as floret number per inflorescence, floret length, nectar volume and sucrose‐dominance and pollen protein. The floral resource diversity from pasture legume mixes could aid honey bee health and support pollinator services for adjacent crops. We conclude that the exotic pasture legumes of temperate Australia show promise for development as a sown floral resource for honey bees. Globally, further investigation is merited to maximise benefits from the integration of a diverse range of pasture legumes into agricultural landscapes.
Context: The Southwest Australia Floristic Region (SWAFR) is a global hotspot for plant taxonomic and functional diversity. This region has many orchids with highly specialised associations with pollinators and mycorrhizal fungi that also face increasing threats from habitat loss, grazing, weeds, fire and climate change. Aims: To identify short and long-term fire outcomes for 17 orchids with diverse ecological strategies in an isolated urban banksia and eucalypt woodland, and to develop fire response monitoring methods and criteria for management of species. Methods: A 72-year fire record was overlain on 982 orchid locations with 7-11 years of baseline data and 4.5 km of transects to determine fire history effects on orchid abundance and diversity. Key traits such as plant size, flowering, pollination, tuber depth, clonality and population dynamics were also measured. Key results: Fire history was very complex with 58 large overlapping major fires over 5 decades, averaging 8.7% of the 63-ha area annually. Correlating fire history with orchid occurrences revealed species usually lost to fire (5 spp.), or with substantial fire impacts (6). Others benefited from fire (6), including strongly enhanced flowering (3), but even the latter could be killed by unseasonal autumn fires. Pollination varied from moderate decreases to substantial increases post-fire, including three orchids producing seed primarily post-fire. Overall, impacts of fire greatly out way benefits, as most orchids preferred long-unburnt areas, and five species were confined to them. Paradoxically, Pyrorchis nigricans requires fire to flower, but was most productive in long-unburnt areas and primarily reproduced clonally. Conclusions: Fire history maps revealed a spectrum of outcomes from catastrophic to beneficial for orchid species summarised by fire response indexes (FRI) and fire age safe thresholds (FAST) lasting decades. This response continuum was highly correlated with trait such as tuber depth, seed vs clonal reproduction, dispersion and lifespan. Fire was deeply integrated into the biology and ecology of SWAFR orchids which are adapted for long fire intervals which maximise their diversity and abundance. Implications: Research in an urban nature reserve provided essential tools for sustainable management of orchids that are also relevant to rare species. These tools include fire history maps, FRI and FAST. Many SWAFR orchids were most productive in long unburnt areas or intolerant to fire, and even fire tolerant orchids can be harmed by autumn fires. Thus, fire must be carefully managed in their habitats, which are most productive two or more decades after fire.
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