“…The rub is that this approach may reveal little about the true structural relation between consumption and its determinants. and operating in the opposite direction, the joint finding that only current income is usually significant in import demand functions and that there is an apparent structural instability in the behavior of income elasticities of demand for imports [Hooper (1978), Stern et al (1979)] is suggestive of some payoff from trying alternative representations of real income. Similarly, one can note the considerable measure of success achieved by Sachs (1981) in using an inter-temporal life-cycle savings/investment framework to explain the pattern of current account positions after the oil shocks of the 1970s.…”
Section: Import Demandmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More formal test to determine the constancy of the regression relationship over time have been conducted by Hooper (1978) and Stern et al (1979). Hooper (1978) applied the standard approach of splitting the sample at the point where the shift is assumed to have occurred, and then proceeded to test whether the shift was statistically significant by using the F -test developed by Chow (I960).…”
Section: Stability Of Trade Relationshipsmentioning
for helpful comments on an earlier draft. 1 The availability of trade data was surely a contributing factor to the advanced nature of the early empirical work on trade models. It is sufficient to note that by 1957 there already existed, inter alia: (i) at least 42 books and articles containing estimates of income and price elasticities for imports and exports [see Cheng's (1959) survey]; (ii) several superb methodological criticisms [Orcutt (1950), Harberger (1953)] that explained why estimated price elasticities could differ from the true elasticities; and (iii) at least one complete simultaneous model of import demand and supply [Morgan and Corlett (1951)], actually estimated by limited-information maximum likelihood methods, that displays the authors' awareness of many of the methodological issues that still entertain current research.
“…The rub is that this approach may reveal little about the true structural relation between consumption and its determinants. and operating in the opposite direction, the joint finding that only current income is usually significant in import demand functions and that there is an apparent structural instability in the behavior of income elasticities of demand for imports [Hooper (1978), Stern et al (1979)] is suggestive of some payoff from trying alternative representations of real income. Similarly, one can note the considerable measure of success achieved by Sachs (1981) in using an inter-temporal life-cycle savings/investment framework to explain the pattern of current account positions after the oil shocks of the 1970s.…”
Section: Import Demandmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More formal test to determine the constancy of the regression relationship over time have been conducted by Hooper (1978) and Stern et al (1979). Hooper (1978) applied the standard approach of splitting the sample at the point where the shift is assumed to have occurred, and then proceeded to test whether the shift was statistically significant by using the F -test developed by Chow (I960).…”
Section: Stability Of Trade Relationshipsmentioning
for helpful comments on an earlier draft. 1 The availability of trade data was surely a contributing factor to the advanced nature of the early empirical work on trade models. It is sufficient to note that by 1957 there already existed, inter alia: (i) at least 42 books and articles containing estimates of income and price elasticities for imports and exports [see Cheng's (1959) survey]; (ii) several superb methodological criticisms [Orcutt (1950), Harberger (1953)] that explained why estimated price elasticities could differ from the true elasticities; and (iii) at least one complete simultaneous model of import demand and supply [Morgan and Corlett (1951)], actually estimated by limited-information maximum likelihood methods, that displays the authors' awareness of many of the methodological issues that still entertain current research.
“…Evidence that the relation between total import and expenditure is not stable uver the business cycle was found by Giovannetti (1987), See, for example, Mastropasqua (1982) for the Italian case, Joy and Stolen (1975) and Stern et alii (1979) for the United States and Abreu (1987) and Fachada (1990) using Brazilian data,…”
Neste artigo, revisa-se a literatura teórica sobre equações de comércio exterior, inclusive o modelo de comércio baseado na teoria da produção. Discute-se vários problemas comumente encontrados em trabalhos empíricos e também a literatura existente sobre equações relativas ao comércio exterior brasileiro.
Abstract:German import represents 5.6% of total global imports and this establishes Germany as the third largest importer in the world. This study examines the dependence of imports on consumption, investment and exports in Germany, using time series data for the period 1997-2013. We received an error correction model that involved short-term and long-term effects and seasonal components. Based on the estimated model, with 1% increase in investment or exports the short-term effect would result in an increase in imports by 0.39% and 0.58%, respectively. We determined the period for which there would be a balance of imports in case of shock on independent variables. There is also a slight constant change in imports during different seasons and a general reduction of import growth by 5.59% on average.
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