Evidence Supports a Causal Model for Vitamin D in COVID-19 Outcomes

Davies, Gareth; Garami, Attila; Byers, Joanna C

doi:10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965

Cited by 24 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 78 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…It also stimulates antimicrobial peptides such as defensins and human cathelicidin 32,33,36,37 with antiviral properties. Recent studies related to COVID-19 also indicate that vitamin D deficiency might be a risk factor not only for incidence 2,3 , but also for severity 4 5 and mortality [6][7][8] associated with COVID-19.…”

Section: Radiation and Covid-19 Deaths In Indiamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Implications of Monsoon Season & UVB Radiation for COVID-19 in India Manuscript

Moozhipurath

Kraft

2020

Preprint

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Background: India has recorded 66,333 deaths over 36 administrative regions placing India third in the world after the US and Brazil for COVID-19 deaths as of 2 September 2020. Studies indicate that south-west monsoon season plays a role in the dynamics of contagious diseases, which tend to peak post-monsoon season. Recent studies show that vitamin D and its primary source Ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) may play a protective role in mitigating COVID-19 deaths. However, the combined roles of the monsoon season and UVB in COVID-19 in India are still unclear. In this observational study, we empirically study the respective roles of monsoon season and UVB, whilst further exploring, whether monsoon season negatively impacts the protective role of UVB in COVID-19 deaths in India. Methods: We use a log-linear Mundlak model to a panel dataset of 36 administrative regions in India from 14 March 2020 - 8 August 2020 (n=4005). We use the cumulative COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable. We isolate the association of monsoon season and UVB as measured by Ultraviolet Index (UVI) from other confounding time-constant and time-varying region-specific factors. Findings: After controlling for various confounding factors, we observe that the monsoon season and a unit increase in UVI are separately associated with 12.8 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points decline in growth rates of COVID-19 deaths in the long run. These associations translate into substantial relative changes. For example, the current monsoon season, that has been going on for two weeks, is associated with a reduction in growth rates of COVID-19 deaths of 59%, whereas a permanent unit increase of UVI is associated with a reduction in growth rates of COVID-19 deaths of 37%. However, the current monsoon season, also reduces the protective role of UVI by 16.3% [0.33 percentage points], plausibly due to lower UVB exposure. Interpretation: We find independent protective roles of both the monsoon season and UVI in mitigating COVID-19 deaths. Furthermore, we find evidence that monsoon season is associated with a significant reduction in the protective role of UVI. The protective role of monsoon season is plausibly due to limited outdoor activities of people. Our study outlines the role of the monsoon season and UVB in COVID-19 in India and supports health-related policy decision making in India.

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Section: Radiation and Covid-19 Deaths In Indiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent observational and clinical studies show that vitamin D deficiency might be linked to incidence 2,3 , severity 4 5 and mortality [6][7][8] associated with COVID-19. Recent studies show that vitamin D and its primary source Ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) may play a protective role in mitigating COVID-19 deaths 9,10 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Monsoon Season & UVB Radiation for COVID-19 in India Manuscript

Moozhipurath

Kraft

2020

Preprint

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“…Further we do not find any correlation between UV index and death growth rate. This is pertinent since UV index is relevant to natural production of vitamin D [38] and vitamin D has been suggested as a protective factor against the spread of the disease [35,36,37], Now we briefly discuss results for the other testing variable, Tests / 1k. We find that this is not a significant correlate of growth rate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate & BCG: Effects on COVID-19 Death Growth Rates

Finlay

Bassett

2020

Preprint

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Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with both machine learning and Bayesian methods. We find weak, non-significant (< 3 sigma) evidence for temperature and relative humidity as factors in the spread of COVID-19 but little or no evidence for BCG vaccination prevalence or PM2.5 pollution. The only variable detected at a statistically significant level (> 3 sigma) is the rate of positive COVID-19 tests, with higher positive rates correlating with higher daily growth of deaths.

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“…An observational study based on the UK Biobank data claimed that no link between vitamin D concentrations and risk of COVID-19 infection either overall or separated ethnic groups (16). However, one study used causal inference analysis, supported the hypothesis that vitamin D plays a causal role in COVID-19 outcomes via modi cation of host responses to SARS-CoV-2 (24). In addition, there were also systematic reviews and meta-analyses to explore the association between vitamin D and COVID-19 (9,10,25).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of 25 Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration with Risk of COVID-19: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Liu

Tian

Zhang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a large global pandemic. In observational studies, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) concentration has been associated with an increased risk of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it remains unclear whether this association is causal.Methods: We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to explore the causal relationship between 25OHD concentration and COVID-19, using summary data from the genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and using 25OHD concentration-related SNPs as instrumental variables (IVs). Results: MR analysis did not show any evidence of a causal association of 25OHD concentration with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity (odds ratio [OR]=1.136, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.988-1.306, P=0.074; OR=0.889, 95% CI 0.549-1.439, P=0.632). Sensitivity analyses using different instruments and statistical models yielded similar findings, suggesting the robustness of the causal association. No obvious pleiotropy bias and heterogeneity were observed.Conclusions: The MR analysis showed that there might be no linear causal relationship of 25OHD concentration with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity.

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Evidence Supports a Causal Model for Vitamin D in COVID-19 Outcomes

Cited by 24 publications

References 78 publications

Implications of Monsoon Season & UVB Radiation for COVID-19 in India Manuscript

Implications of Monsoon Season & UVB Radiation for COVID-19 in India Manuscript

Climate & BCG: Effects on COVID-19 Death Growth Rates

Association of 25 Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration with Risk of COVID-19: A Mendelian Randomization Study

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