Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

Mazzarella, A.; Scafetta, Nicola

doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0499-4

Cited by 66 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Indeed, despite the IPCC (2007) claims the sun has an almost negligible effect on climate, numerous authors found significant correlations between specific solar models and temperature records suggesting a strong climate sensitivity to solar variations (e.g. : Bond et al 2001;Hoyt and Schatten 1993;Loehle and Scafetta 2011;Mazzarella and Scafetta 2012;Ogurtsov et al 2002;Scafetta 2009Scafetta , 2010Scafetta , 2012bScafetta , 2013bSchulz and Paul 2002;Soon 2005;Soon and Legates 2013;Steinhilber et al 2012;Svensmark 2007;Thejll and Lassen 2000).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

Scafetta

Willson²

2014

Astrophys Space Sci

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The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite composite time series has been updated using corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results for scattering and diffraction derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The corrections lower the ACRIM3 scale by about 5000 ppm, in close agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (solar constant ≈ 1361 W/m 2 ) but the relative variations and trends are not changed. Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites, particularly the decadal trending during solar cycles 21-22, are tested against a set of solar proxy models, including analysis of Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989Gap ( -1992. Our findings confirm the following ACRIM TSI composite features: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22 -23. Our findings do not support the following PMOD TSI composite features: (1) The downward corrections to originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) A step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) the validity of ERBE's downward trend during the ACRIM Gap or (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037%/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21-22. The implications of increasing TSI during the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century are that solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models.Cite: Scafetta, N., and R. C. Willson, 2014. ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models. Astrophysics and Space Science 350(2), 421-442.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

Scafetta

Willson²

2014

Astrophys Space Sci

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“…Ice core analysis suggests a shorter AMO quasi-periodicity (about 20 years) during the Little Ice Age and a longer periodicity in the Medieval Warm Period (Chylek et al 2012). Atmosphere-Ocean coupled climate models (Metha and Delworth 1995;Griffies and Bryan 1997;Delworth and Knutson 2000;Dong and Sutton 2001;Wei and Lohmann 2012;Mahajan et al 2011;Henriksson et al 2012;Yang et al 2013;Escudier et al 2013;Zanchettin et al 2013) as well as simplified conceptual ocean models (Frankcombe and Djikstra 2011), or statistical harmonic models (Humlum et al 2011;Mazzarella and Scafetta 2012;Scafetta 2012) suggest a future persistent AMO like multi-decadal oscillation. Based on this evidence of the past behavior we expect the AMO to retain its cyclic behavior during the twenty-first century with a cycle length of 60-70 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future

et al. 2013

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The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5°C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2°C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181-1184, 2007 Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975-2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.

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“…Cycles with quasi 50-70-year periods are found in several climatic records (Wyatt et al 2011), particularly in the global surface temperature since 1850 (Scafetta 2010(Scafetta , 2012a and are clearly present in the North Atlantic Oscillation indexes since 1700 (Mazzarella and Scafetta 2012).…”

Section: Short-term Modern Climate Forcingmentioning

confidence: 93%

High-Frequency Cyclicity In the Mediterranean Messinian Evaporites: Evidence For Solar-Lunar Climate Forcing

Manzi¹,

Gennari²,

Lugli³

et al. 2012

Journal of Sedimentary Research

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The deposition of varved sedimentary sequences is usually controlled by climate conditions. The study of two late Miocene evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves has been carried out to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis, , 6 Ma, when thick evaporite deposits accumulated on the floor of the Mediterranean basin. Spectral analyses of these varved evaporitic successions reveal significant periodicity peaks at around 3-5, 9, 11-13, 20-27 and 50-100 yr. A comparison with modern precipitation data in the western Mediterranean shows that during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis the climate was not in a permanent evaporitic stage, but in a dynamic situation where evaporite deposition was controlled by quasi-periodic climate oscillations with similarity to modern analogs including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and decadal to secular lunar-and solar-induced cycles. Particularly we found a significant quasi-decadal oscillation with a prominent 9-year peak that is commonly also found in modern temperature records and is present in the contemporary Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. These cyclicities are common to both ancient and modern climate records because they can be associated with solar and solar-lunar tidal cycles.During the Messinian the Mediterranean basin as well as the global ocean were characterized by different configurations than at present, in terms of continent distribution, ocean size, geography, hydrological connections, and ice-sheet volumes. The recognition of modern-style climate oscillations during the Messinian suggests that, although local geographic factors acted as pre-conditioning factors turning the Mediterranean Sea into a giant brine pool, external climate forcings, regulated by solarlunar cycles and largely independent from local geographic factors, modulated the deposition of the evaporites.

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Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

Cited by 66 publications

References 33 publications

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future

High-Frequency Cyclicity In the Mediterranean Messinian Evaporites: Evidence For Solar-Lunar Climate Forcing

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