Water availability is fundamental for regional socioeconomic development, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions with recurrent periods of drought. Such is the case of the southwest region of Tamaulipas, whose only viable source of water is the Tula-Bustamante aquifer. This study aims to model groundwater evolution in the area, defining water-rock interaction processes, using nonparametric statistical tools and hydrogeochemical analysis. Two main processes that give rise to different hydrogeological units were identified: one characterized by water flow through fractured media (with limestone, dolomite and gypsum dissolution), and the other by aquitard features, such as the dissolution of shales, sandstones, and clays. Moreover, recharge, transit, and discharge processes were identified using groundwater flow systems theory, providing basic information for the design of an integrated water resources management system in the study area.