Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change

Martinez, André; Murphy, L.; Iglesias, G.

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2023.126655

Cited by 28 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Results show remarkable long-term evolution in energy relative to the baseline in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, much greater than in Europe [4] or North America [5], where changes in wind power density rarely exceed 30%. It would appear that global wind resources in these scenarios are poised to increase substantially in concentrated areas in Tropical Regions, such as those identified in this work, in West Africa [13] and Australasia [9], in stark contrast with a widespread, less pronounced decrease in regions of the Northern Hemisphere -Europe [8], North America [5] or China [7].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…The SSPs have been employed by the CMIP6 (the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) to generate climate projections through Global Climate Models (GCMs) [2]. These projections have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on wind resources in multiple regions and scales, e.g., globally [3], Europe [4], North America [5], the UK [6], China [7], offshore Northern Europe [8], Australasia [9], offshore China [10] and the offshore Mediterranean Region [11]. It became apparent in these studies that the SSPs anticipate more significant changes than previous scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind energy resources in South America under climate change

2024

Preprint

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This work evaluates future variations in wind resources in South America by considering the newest and most complex climate-change scenarios -the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). A multi-model ensemble of global climate models is constructed to compare wind power density values at the end of the century (2081-2100) with a baseline period (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). Three climate-change scenarios are considered, representative of high (SSP5-8.5), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and low (SSP1-1.9) emissions pathways. The findings reveal remarkable increases in wind resources (over 100%) in regions of Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. Conversely, notable reductions (up to 50%) are predicted along the western coast of the South American continent, particularly in South Chile, Peru and Ecuador. These substantial changes must be taken into account in strategising the growth of the wind industry and its pivotal role in achieving the decarbonisation of the energy sector in South America.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind energy resources in South America under climate change

2024

Preprint

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“…At this point, we have to highlight that although the RCP dataset are frequently considered by scientists, a new climatological approach, called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), has been recently developed [14,56]. Nevertheless, the spatial resolution of the current models can be considered to be quite low (e.g., 2.0 • × 2.5 • , model GISS-E2-1-G), and the release on public space of some high-resolution data will be expected in the near future [57,58].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Expected Dynamics of the European Offshore Wind Sector in the Climate Change Context

Rusu,

Onea

2023

JMSE

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The objective of this present work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind conditions corresponding to some important European marine energy sites by considering both historical (1979–2020) and climatological data (2021–2100). As a first step, the wind energy profile of each site is assessed using some statistical methods (e.g., Weibull parameters) and some relevant indicators for the wind sector, such as the downtime period (<3 m/s). Since the offshore industry evolves very quickly, another objective of this work was to assess the performances of some large-scale wind turbines defined via capacity productions in the range of 15–25 MW. In terms of the capacity factor, the estimated values frequently exceed 60%, reaching a maximum of 76% in some cases, in line with the expected outputs of the new wind generators. In the final part of this work, several aspects are discussed, among them being the accuracy of the RCPs datasets or the current trends involving the wind sector. The offshore wind sector represents an important pillar of the European green market, which means that the future generation of wind turbines will play an important role in the consolidation of this sector and, eventually, in the expansion to new coastal areas.

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“…Studies on the temporal variability of wind energy potential in East Asia and Europe indicate that the interannual and intra-annual variability in most regions of both continents will increase in the future, with the increase toward the end of the century being more significant compared to the near term. However, the increase in variability in the Nordic region is significant only under the SSP585 scenario [72,82,84]. Research identifies differences in the temporal variability of wind resources among emission scenarios, with higher emission scenarios leading to notably greater variability compared to lower emission scenarios [84].…”

Section: The Variability Of Wind Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Europe [82] Europe CMIP6 [83] Europe CORDEX [84] Northern Europe CMIP6 [85] Ireland CMIP6 [86] Italy CORDEX [87] Ireland CORDEX [88] Germany CORDEX [89] Greece WRF [90] Greece Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model, Version 4 (RCA4) [91] Spain CORDEX [92] Portugal CORDEX [93] Iberian Peninsula, Spain and Portugal CORDEX [94] Republic of Serbia Erdemli-Basin-Uni Oslo-Physical Oceanography Model (EBU-POM), Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-grid (NMMB) [95] Lithuania MPI-ESM-LR, IPSL-CM5A-M Africa [96] Northwestern Africa CORDEX [97] West Africa CMIP6 [98] West Africa CORDEX [99] West Africa CORDEX [100] Southwestern Africa CORDEX [101] Zambia CORDEX [102] Morocco CORDEX [103] Egypt CMIP6…”

Section: Wind Resourcementioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Solar and Wind Energy Resource Projection Based on the Earth System Model

Chen,

2024

Sustainability

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Many countries around the world are rapidly advancing sustainable development (SD) through the exploitation of clean energy sources such as solar and wind energy, which are becoming the core of the sustainable energy transition. In recent years, the continuous advancement of Earth system models (ESMs) has facilitated numerous studies utilizing them to predict long-term and large-scale meteorological elements, consequently enabling forecasts of wind and solar energy. These forecasts provide critical guidance for formulating national renewable energy policies. Nevertheless, the current literature on ESMs predicting wind and solar energy lacks sufficient integration. Hence, to comprehend the focal points and future research prospects, we conducted this systematic review, employing four academic search tools to comprehensively analyze the relevant literature from the past five years. We summarized the general analytical process and compared the content and conclusions of the literature. The study reveals that future photovoltaic (PV) potential for electricity generation may increase in certain regions but decrease in others, while the global potential for concentrated solar power (CSP) may diminish, influenced by diverse factors and displaying significant regional disparities. In addition, wind resource trends vary in different regions, and forecasts exhibit considerable uncertainty. Therefore, many studies have corrected wind speeds prior to predicting wind energy. Subsequent research endeavors should concentrate on optimizing ESMs, investigating the impacts of technological innovation, and enhancing the prediction and analysis of extreme weather events.

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Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change

Cited by 28 publications

References 43 publications

Wind energy resources in South America under climate change

Wind energy resources in South America under climate change

The Expected Dynamics of the European Offshore Wind Sector in the Climate Change Context

A Review of Solar and Wind Energy Resource Projection Based on the Earth System Model

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