Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Abstract

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis’.

Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions

“…As Søgaard Jørgensen et al . [112] argue, the Anthropocene may contain evolutionary traps for humanity. If so, path B is the largest and final trap.…”

“…Thus, path B could lead to biosphere collapse in the short term or extinction in the very long term (figure 2, upper left). As Søgaard Jørgensen et al [112] argue, the Anthropocene may contain evolutionary traps for humanity. If so, path B is the largest and final trap.…”

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis

“…The Anthropocene system is characterized by rapid change, high levels of global connectivity, resulting in new forms of experienced inequality [99,100] (figure 3). These three forces, together with the seemingly ever-increasing power of new technologies, combine to shape present day global sustainability challenges [24,101,102]. This second section focuses on the medium timescale and the current evolutionary dynamics of sustainability challenges.…”

“…Just like human-induced novelties often serve as evolutionary traps for other species [128][129][130][131], the Anthropocene could also be a large-scale evolutionary trap for our own species. Søgaard Jørgensen et al [102] ask whether the Anthropocene may be as much an evolutionary trap for humans as humandriven global change is for many other species, such as seabirds eating marine plastics or the many islands faunas naive to introduced predators. They identify 14 types of evolutionary traps and find that these traps often reinforce each other in an Anthropocene polycrisis.…”

“…However, for cumulatively cultural human societies, much less work has been done on operationalizing this concept. Two papers in the theme issue argue that more work is needed to understand capacities that will enable societies to evolve [102,144], including the capacity to design interventions that direct cultural evolution in collectively agreed directions [150].…”