2013
DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1003209
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Evolution of Virulence in Emerging Epidemics

Abstract: Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses co… Show more

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Cited by 163 publications
(258 citation statements)
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“…Evolutionary theory predicts that at higher pathogen prevalence, less virulent pathogen strains will be more common, and this has been supported empirically (Berngruber et al 2013). In systems where the supply of susceptible host plants is regularly renewed, however, more virulent pathogens may continue to prevail (Smart and Fry 2001).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Evolutionary theory predicts that at higher pathogen prevalence, less virulent pathogen strains will be more common, and this has been supported empirically (Berngruber et al 2013). In systems where the supply of susceptible host plants is regularly renewed, however, more virulent pathogens may continue to prevail (Smart and Fry 2001).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Indeed, changes in virulence have been associated with the effects of parasites on host population dynamics [1], [5], the reduction of ecosystem biodiversity [6], [7], and the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases [8],[9]. In the last three decades considerable effort has been devoted to developing theoretical models that predict conditions favouring the increase or decrease of parasite virulence.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Among biological traits assumed to be under strong evolutionary pressure, the virulence of pathogens, generally defined as the quantitative ability of a pathogen to induce host mortality [11,12], is the focus of considerable attention from evolutionary ecologists [12] and plant pathologists [13]. Despite still imprecise experimental characterizations, mainly based on proxies, and a complex theory including the transmission-virulence trade-off hypothesis [14], the evolution at this trait is thought to be tightly related to the spread of diseases [11,15,16].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Despite still imprecise experimental characterizations, mainly based on proxies, and a complex theory including the transmission-virulence trade-off hypothesis [14], the evolution at this trait is thought to be tightly related to the spread of diseases [11,15,16]. This evolutionary perspective, together with the large spatio-temporal scales considered in forestry and the often numerous uncertainties about the biology of the pathogens, make integrative experimental assessments of the effects of common forestry practices on fungal pathogen populations hardly feasible.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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