Evolution trend analysis of carbon emissions in light industrial parks: A system dynamics approach

Abstract

The industrial sector is China's major element of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and carbon emissions reduction in industrial parks has become an important foothold in carbon reduction work. Predicting the future evolution trend of carbon emissions in industrial parks under different policy orientations is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the current status of electricity consumption and carbon emissions in industrial parks, this paper takes a light industrial park as the research object, analyzes the source of carbon emissions in this park, combines the characteristics of resource endowment and industrial structure, and considers the factors influencing society, load curve, energy supply and carbon sink, thus constructing a system dynamics model of carbon emission evolution for this park. Different influencing factors are selected to set multiple target scenarios, and the GDP, carbon emissions, carbon emissions reduction and near‐zero carbon evaluation coefficient of light industrial parks are used as characterization indicators for simulation analysis. The analysis results revealed that the comprehensive scenario set by increasing the maximum installed capacity of renewable energy units and raising the proportions of environmental and science and technology inputs while adjusting the industrial growth rate of the park performed best. In this scenario, the economic development of the park and the process of carbon emissions reduction are considered.

Research on the sustainable development mode of resource‐oriented regions on plateaus—A case study for Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture

“…The influence of evapotranspiration under different vegetation cover conditions, soil permeability characteristics of different soil textures, terrain, surface roughness and other factors on the runoff of the surface can be considered well, and the distribution of the water yield of the basin can be expressed. The relevant parameters are adjusted to the actual situation in the research area (Mehrazar et al, 2020;Musango et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2023). The formula for calculating water yield is:…”

“…As a method to study integrated systems theory, cybernetics, information theory, and other disciplines, the SD model has been successfully applied in various fields. For example, the SD model in the field of carbon emissions enables the prediction and simulation of carbon emissions under different policies to select the best carbon reduction measures (Zhang et al, 2023). Furthermore, its application to the field of climate change enables the study of the impacts of climate change on different subsystems of regional agriculture and socioeconomics and the evaluation of various adaptation strategies (Mehrazar et al, 2020).…”