Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Abstract

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying threefold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.

Response to von Schmalensee et al.

“…(2024) (henceforth VS et al.) raised two issues with our study (Garcia‐Costoya et al., 2023) that they view as biasing our key conclusions. They are concerned with (1) the way we simulated thermal environments, and (2) the role that initial differences in standing trait variation played in population dynamics.…”

Life-history adaptation under climate warming magnifies the agricultural footprint of a cosmopolitan insect pest

“…To mitigate these effects, management strategies need to be equipped with accurate predictive models 13,14,72,[90][91][92] , as well as an understanding of the limits to their accuracy 38,[93][94][95] . It is our hope that our study can contribute towards this development by i) providing general insights into the repeatability and mode of thermal adaptation in life-history of insect pests, which can inform on the general accuracy of ecological forecasting of species responses to climate change, and ii) by emphasizing the need for incorporating a mechanistic and genetic basis of thermal niche evolution into ecoevolutionary forecasts, on which improved management decision can be based 6,13,17,35,72,90,96,97 .…”

Methodological artefacts cause counter‐intuitive evolutionary conclusions in a simulation study

“…3 in the study of Garcia‐Costoya et al. (2023a, 2023b). Even though one population is evolutionary unconstrained by genetic correlations, it is very much constrained by its standing (‘genetic’) variation.…”