Evolutionary micro-dynamics and changes in the economic structure

Abstract

The paper develops a growth model with evolutionary micro-founded structural change. The model endogenises both technical change and changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting macro-economic growth, through the structural change of the economy. The aim is to formally account for the empirical stylised fact of the changes in the sectoral structure of the economy which have led to the growth of services in most advanced countries over the last decades. At the mesomacro level of analysis, we investigate whether the structural changes leading to the growth of services are mainly demand-led, both in terms of final consumption and intermediate demand. At the micro-level of analysis, we explore whether demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities. The simulated results are based on the use of the actual Input-Output coefficients in the case of Germany. Four scenarios have been identified, which account for the effects of a set of key parameters on the changes in the structure of the economy.

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

“…With this modeling method, we can figure out energy consumption and emissions not only at the macro level, but also at lower levels. In this paper, the model developed by Lorentz and Savona [24,25] and Gong Yi et al [26], which incorporates agent-based simulation with an input-output model, will be expanded to forecast China's energy consumption and carbon emissions through the year 2050. The intent is to see whether China can reach the target of peaking emissions at different levels.…”

“…The model, first established by Lorentz and Savona [24,25], is a multiple layer model used for structural economic change. Figure 1 shows how the macro-level module interacts with the micro-level module.…”

“…According to Lorentz and Savona [24,25], the macro level is structured by the input-output model. The output t j Y , can be broken down into three parts as presented in Equation (1) …”

“…According to Lorentz and Savona [24,25], the macro level is structured by the input-output model. The output Y j,t can be broken down into three parts as presented in Equation (1): intermediate consumption I j,t , final domestic consumption C j,t and net foreign consumption from the difference from export X j,t and import M j,t .…”

“…In Lorentz and Savona [24,25], the output of an enterprise was calculated from labor productivities and labor, but it neglected the contribution of capital stock in production. For this reason, we modified the output function into the Cobb-Douglas form, and the capital stock of the enterprise accumulates annually from the base year:…”