EVOLVE 4.0 orbital debris mitigation studies

Krisko, Paula H.; Johnson, Nicholas L.; Opiela, J.

doi:10.1016/s0273-1177(01)00425-2

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…In reality, the satellite population growth in LEO will undoubtedly be worse than the studies indicate, since spacecraft and their orbital stages will continue to be launched into space and unexpected major breakups may continue to occur. Postmission disposal of vehicles, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes to less than 25 years, can certainly slow down the population growth [3][4][5] . However, this mitigation measure will be insufficient to prevent further growth of the Earth satellite population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

2009

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The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. Therefore, to better limit the growth of future debris population to protect the environment, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. A removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

2009

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“…The impact of post-mission disposal maneuvers on collision activity below 700 km was appreciated even before the introduction of the IADC post-mission disposal guideline for objects in LEO. Referring to the implementation of deorbit rules in a 2001 simulation study [12] said, "The act of reducing perigee of all intacts at end-of-life increases the time spent at the lower altitudes and also increases the likelihood of collision at those low altitudes. "…”

Section: Full Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics

Lewis

2020

Journal of Space Safety Engineering

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Linear growth of the orbital debris population is observed in the results of many evolutionary models when they are used to simulate the effects of the widespread adoption of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) debris mitigation guidelines. Such linear growth seemingly confirms the belief that adopting these debris mitigation guidelines will have substantial and positive benefits on the orbital debris population. However, this outcome is not expected from analyses of simple systems models. Either the systems model is too simplistic, or the linear growth of the debris population is actually the beginnings of exponential growth, which is difficult to discern over the typical analysis period. To resolve this ambiguity, the Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) model was used to perform ultra-long projections of the future debris population ≥ 10 cm in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) under highly optimistic debris mitigation conditions. The DAMAGE results showed that the linear growth rate observed for the first 200 years of the projection period was transient and the growth was exponential, even with the ongoing and widespread adoption of debris mitigation measures. The population growth was driven by the accumulation of orbital debris at altitudes between 1200 km and 1500 km, even though simulated launch activity to that region was limited. Further, the results highlighted a tendency for high and sustained collision rates at altitudes below 700 km, predominantly due to conjunctions between spacecraft and upper stages decaying through this region in observance with the "25-year rule". Overall, these results indicate that additional, and possibly new, measures to mitigate the effects of orbital debris may be needed, with particular emphasis on post-mission disposal and measures that protect the 1200-1500 km region in LEO.

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“…The effectiveness of PMD has been well demonstrated [6,7,10,16]. Some recent ADR studies have used future PMD compliances levels of 90% with a 25-year de-orbit time [9,10,12].…”

Section: Compliance With Post-mission Disposalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several responses outlining mitigation procedures, including the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines [1], the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Mitigation Guidelines [2], the International Organization for Standardization Space Debris Mitigation standards [3], the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook [4], and a multitude of other national and international documents have been, and continue to be, developed to limit the expected future growth of the debris population. Whilst the widespread adoption of mitigation measures has been shown to be effective at reducing this predicted growth [5][6][7], these are unlikely to stop the long-term debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) from increasing in size [8][9][10]. In 2009, the IADC initiated an action item (A.I.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The many futures of active debris removal

White

Lewis

2014

Acta Astronautica

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In the last decade, space debris modelling studies have suggested that the long-term low Earth orbit (LEO) debris population will continue to grow even with the widespread adoption of mitigation measures recommended by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee. More recently, studies have shown that it is possible to prevent the expected growth of debris in LEO with the additional removal of a small number of selected debris objects, through a process of active debris removal (ADR). In order to constrain the many degrees of freedom within these studies, some reasonable assumptions were made concerning parameters describing future launch, explosion, solar and mitigation activities. There remains uncertainty about how the values of these parameters will change in the future. As a result, the effectiveness of ADR has only been established and quantified for a narrow range of possible future cases. There is, therefore, a need to broaden the values of these parameters to investigate further the potential benefits of ADR.A study was completed to model and quantify the influence of four key parameters describing launch and explosion rates, the magnitude of solar activity and the level of post-mission disposal compliance on the effectiveness of ADR to reduce the LEO debris population. Each parameter's value was drawn from a realistic range, based upon historical data of the last 50 years and, in the case of post-mission disposal, a current estimate of the level of compliance and a second optimistic value. Using the University of The results showed an increase in the variance of the size of the LEO population at the 2209 epoch compared with previous ADR modelling studies. In some cases, the number of LEO debris objects in the population varied by a factor greater than ten. Ten removals per year were not sufficient to prevent the longterm growth of the population in some cases, whilst ADR was not required to prevent population growth in others.

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EVOLVE 4.0 orbital debris mitigation studies

Cited by 11 publications

References 5 publications

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics

The many futures of active debris removal

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