EWMACD Algorithm in Early Detection of Defoliation Caused by Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu

Abstract

The persistent increase in forest pest outbreaks requires timely detection methods to monitor the disaster precisely. However, early detection is challenging due to insufficient temporal observation and subtle tree changes. This article proposed a novel framework that collaborates multi-source remote sensing data and uses a change detection algorithm to archive early detection of infestation caused by Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu (D. tabulaeformis) attacks. First, all available Sentinel-2 images with less than 20% cloud cover were utilized. During periods with long intervals (>16 days) between Sentinel-2 images, Landsat-8 images with less than 20% cloud cover were downscaled to a spatial resolution of 10 m using a deep learning algorithm to meet the requirement for a high temporal frequency of clear observations. Second, the spectral index differences between healthy and infested trees were examined to address the challenge of detecting subtle changes in pest attacks. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was selected for early defoliation detection. On this basis, the EWMACD (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Change Detection) algorithm, which is sensitive to subtle changes, was enhanced to improve the capability of detecting early D. tabulaeformis attacks. The assessment showed that the overall accuracy of the change detection (F1 score) reached 0.86 during the early stage and 0.88 during the late stage. The temporal accuracy (Precision) was 84.1% during the early stage. The accuracy significantly improved compared to using a single remote sensing data source. This study presents a new framework capable of monitoring early forest defoliation caused by D. tabulaeformis attacks and offering opportunities for predicting future outbreaks and implementing preventive measures.