Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

Abstract

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high‐resolution self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.

Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought

“…Although increasing trends in the TDD and R95p metrics across much of the region could support anecdotal perceptions of a more intense, variable, and longer MSD, these trends do not yet meet formal thresholds of statistical significance in most locations and neither pass field significance tests at p<0.05. While agriculturalists in Central America have dealt with high variability in the timing and quantity of rainfall for centuries (Metz 2006), and will continue to do so, increasing drying over the region due to human modification to the climate system will exacerbate the vulnerability of many rural communities in Central America in the future (Rauscher et al 2008, Maurer et al 2017, Herrera et al 2018. Integrating local knowledge and informal observation of climate variability with high-resolution datasets is therefore critical in addressing some of the uncertainties in data, trends, and future impacts, and in developing relevant, equitable, and evidence-based climate adaptation plans.…”

Revising the wintering distribution and habitat use of the Kirtland’s warbler using playback surveys, citizen scientists, and geolocators

“…Successful land conversion, altered fire regimes, and decreases in agriculture across The Bahamas all threaten the maintenance of Kirtland's warbler wintering habitat. Furthermore, climate change associated drought (Neelin et al 2006, Herrera et al 2018) and sea-level rise (Nicholls & Cazenave 2010) have the potential to drastically reduce the quantity and quality of wintering habitat. Drought is likely to lead to reduced fruit and insect availability, both resources that Kirtland's warblers depend upon throughout the winter (Wunderle et al 2010(Wunderle et al , 2014.…”

Solar Thermo-Powered Desalination Fountain-Barge: A Macro-Imagineering NA Venezuela’s Golfo de Cariaco (Fonte-Barcaça de Dessalinização Termo-Alimentada por Energia Solar: Uma Macro-Imagenharia NA, Golfo de Cariaco, Venezuela)

“…Indeed, the Nation's Caribbean coast is constantly subject to Trade Winds and, episodically, to hurricane storm surges and tsunami-generated waves. Since circa AD 1950, agricultural landscapes of the Caribbean Sea Basin have suffered a drying trend as well as a few multi-year droughts -for instance the 2013-2016 AD drought was universally judged as very severe, putting at risk ~2.0 million people because of food production insecurity and slackening tourism [18]. Even the diminishing fishery annual take has apparently been affected by commonly observed climate change [19].…”