Examination of a relationship between atmospheric blocking and seismic events in the Middle East using a new seismo-climatic index

Daneshvar, Mohammad Reza Mansouri; Freund, Friedemann

doi:10.1007/s00015-019-00343-4

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…In other words, the high values of the climatic variables for low cloud cover (lcc) conditions, total cloud cover (tcc) conditions, total precipitation (tp) conditions, surface latent heat flux (slhf) conditions, and total column rainwater (tcrw) conditions can be considered anomalous, pointing to impending major earthquake events (M > 6) within the next 20 days. The results of this CCF plot indicate that, when climatic parameters such as precipitation and surface latent heat flux increase, they forecast earthquake activity within the 8-day and 20-day time windows (p > 90%) that were found during previous studies such as in [3,20,40,43,44].…”

Section: Estimation Of Ccfsupporting

confidence: 52%

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Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Daneshvar¹,

Freund

Ebrahimi

2023

Sustainability

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The present study provides a systematic assessment of the relationships between climatic variables and major earthquakes (M > 6) in Iran (2011–2021). These variables include total cloud cover (tcc), low cloud cover (lcc), total precipitation (tp), surface latent heat flux (slhf), and total column rainwater (tcrw). Based on a wider set of variables provided by a multidimensional global dataset (ERA5), the combination of a cross-correlation function (CCF) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to develop the spatial and temporal analytic relations. Covering maximal values from 0.42 to 0.92, the CCF plots revealed that an increase in climatic parameters could provide valuable information about impending earthquake activity within 8 to 20 days. The mean values of tcc, lcc, tp, slhf, and tcrw were found to increase by 95%, 60%, 80.0 mm, 105 W/m2, and 95 kg−3/m2, respectively. In fact, with the mean AUC (area under the curve) indices ranging from 0.677 (tcc) to 0.810 (tcrw) prior to major earthquakes, the ROC plots allowed for discrimination between seismic and climatic variables ranging from “acceptable” to “excellent”. The changes in the climatic variables under study were due to anomalous air ionization and water condensation in the atmosphere, which can be regarded as short-term precursors to major earthquakes.

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Section: Estimation Of Ccfsupporting

confidence: 52%

“…For the area of Iran, various climatic precursors prior to major earthquakes were reported by Daneshvar and colleagues [40][41][42][43][44]. Despite the notable results in the previous studies, the lack of any comprehensive multiparametric investigations regarding the climatic anomalies before earthquake events is a research gap in Iran.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Daneshvar¹,

Freund

Ebrahimi

2023

Sustainability

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“…The study of Mansouri Daneshvar and Freund affirms a process, by which tectonic stresses deep in the Earth's crust lead to positive charges at the surface-to-air interface and air ionization, which can trigger atmospheric blocks [7]. Carpinteri et al showed common cycles between interannual changes in atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and global seismic-moment release with a spectral analysis of the period 1955-2013.…”

Section: Introduction mentioning

confidence: 95%

Monte Carlo Methods to Simulate the Propagation of the Created Atomic/ Nuclear Particles from Underground Piezoelectric Rocks through the Fractures Before the Earthquakes

Bahari,

Mohammadi,

Shakib

et al. 2024

Atom Indo.

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Until now, many studies have been performed on particle radiations before or during earthquakes (EQs). Neutron, gamma, electron, proton, and ultra-low frequency (ULF) photons are among the particles, detected during EQs. In our previous study, with the help of piezoelectricity relationships and the elastic energy formula, the Monte Carlo N‐Particle eXtended (MCNPX) simulation code was applied to find the amount of created atomic/nuclear particles, the dominant interactions; and the energy of the particles for various sizes of quartz and granite blocks. In this study, using the MCNPX simulation code, we have estimated the flux of the particles (created from under-stressed granitic rocks) at different distances from the EQ hypocenter inside the fractures, filled with air, water, and CO2. It was found that inside a water-filled fracture, the particles do not show the flux far from the EQ hypocenter. However, inside the gases like air and CO2 with the normal condition density, different types of particles can have a flux far from the source (more than a kilometer) and they might reach themselves to the surface in the case that the EQ hypocenter is very shallow (0-5 km). However, for deep EQs, it seems that the most detected nuclear particles on the surface should pass via the vacuum-filled fractures and reach the surface. Moreover, it was concluded that the higher the density of the fracture’s filling fluid, the less distance that the particles can have a flux.

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Synoptic Scale Atmospheric Processes and Heatwaves

McGregor

2024

Biometeorology

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Examination of a relationship between atmospheric blocking and seismic events in the Middle East using a new seismo-climatic index

Cited by 7 publications

References 78 publications

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Monte Carlo Methods to Simulate the Propagation of the Created Atomic/ Nuclear Particles from Underground Piezoelectric Rocks through the Fractures Before the Earthquakes

Synoptic Scale Atmospheric Processes and Heatwaves

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