Examination of Experimental Designs and Response Surface Methods for Uncertainty Analysis of Production Forecast: A Niger Delta Case Study

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine various DoE methods for uncertainty quantification of production forecast during reservoir management. Considering all uncertainties for analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Uncertainty screening using experimental design methods helps reducing number of parameters to manageable sizes. However, adoption of various methods is more often based on experimenter discretions or company practices. This is mostly done with no or little attention been paid to the risks associated with decisions that emanated from that exercise. The consequence is the underperformance of the project when compared with the actual value of the project. This study presents the analysis of the three families of designs used for screening and four DoE methods used for response surface modeling during uncertainty analysis. The screening methods (sensitivity by one factor at-a-time, fractional experiment, and Plackett-Burman design) were critically examined and analyzed using numerical flow simulation. The modeling methods (Box-Behnken, central composite, D-optima, and full factorial) were programmed and analyzed for capabilities to reproduce actual forecast figures. The best method was selected for the case study and recommendations were made as to the best practice in selecting various DoE methods for similar applications.

Magnetic-Guided Targeted Delivery of Zerumbone/Spion Co-Loaded in Nanostructured Lipid Carrier into Breast Cancer Cells

“…1e) that the particle diameter of NLC predicted by RSM (139.67 ± 20.60 nm) was in good agreement with the DLS measurement (138.59 ± 7.01 nm), excluding the experimental deviations that arose from a precision measurement of DLS. Therefore, contributing reasons for this deviation could be an incorrect choice of experimental design, wrong regression models fitted, inadequate control of noise factors, and incorrect choice of process parameters and their levels which need to be studied further [28].…”

Techno-economic evaluation of the potential of CO2 storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Niger-Delta Hydrocarbon Basin using reservoir simulation: Case Study

“…Due to the absence of relative permeability functions for the case study reservoir, the measurements from an analogous reservoir were modified through a history-matching routine and applied to the Niger-Delta turbidite reservoir (Arinkoola & Ogbe, 2015). Two-phase relative permeability curves were presented, and the Stone II model was used to compute the three-phase curves.…”

Evaluation of Parameters for Subcritical Water Extraction of Zingiber Zerumbet Using Fractional Factorial Design

“…Wong et al, 2014 successfully screened the significant variables in the extraction of palm kernel by implementing fractional factorial design for the further optimization process [21]. By utilizing screening process design, the number of the experiment will reduce, thus minimizing the usage of sample and solution related to the research [22,23].…”