Examination of the Spillover Effects among Natural Gas and Wholesale Electricity Markets Using Their Futures with Different Maturities and Spot Prices

Abstract

This study measures the connectedness of natural gas and electricity spot returns to their futures returns with different maturities. We employ the Henry Hub and the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) Western Hub Peak as the natural gas price indicator and the wholesale electricity price indicator, respectively. We also use each commodity’s spot prices and 12 types of futures prices with one to twelve months maturities and realize results in fourfold. First, we observe mutual spillover effects between natural gas futures returns and learn that the natural gas futures market is integrated. Second, we observe the spillover effects from natural gas futures returns to natural gas spot returns (however, the same is not evident for natural gas spot returns to natural gas futures returns). We find that futures markets have better natural gas price discovery capabilities than spot markets. Third, we observe the spillover effects from natural gas spot returns to electricity spot returns, and the spillover effects from natural gas futures returns to electricity futures returns. We learn that the marginal cost of power generation (natural gas prices) is passed through to electricity prices. Finally, we do not observe any spillover effects amongst electricity futures returns, except for some combinations, and learn that the electricity futures market is not integrated.

Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?

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