Examining macroeconomic determinants of trust in parliament: A dynamic multilevel framework

Abstract

The extensive literature on political trust has long suggested a link between macroeconomic conditions and public trust in political institutions. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship remains ambiguous. Conflicting results appear to be related to differences in research design: while cross-sectional studies tend not to find evidence of a link between macroeconomic variables and trust in political institutions, most longitudinal studies do. In this paper, using recent advances in multilevel methodology, we examine both cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of macroeconomic variables on trust in national parliament within a single dynamic multilevel framework. By analyzing all seven waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2014), we demonstrate that declining macroeconomic performance has a negative within-country effect on trust in national parliament. At the same time, we find limited evidence in support of this association at the between-country level. This discrepancy suggests the presence of confounding factors that are unaccounted for in cross-sectional designs. We therefore argue for the importance of examining within-country effects as they provide a more stringent test of causality.

Responsiveness, Performance and Corruption: Reasons for the Decline of Political Trust

“…Individual experiences of economic hardship can reduce citizens' degree of trust in institutions whether lasting or transitory (Clarke et al, 1993;Brooks and Manza, 2007). In accordance, recent studies have shown that fluctuations in economic performance affect the levels of political trust over time (Dotti Sani and Magistro, 2016;Van Erkel and Van der Meer, 2016;Van der Meer, 2017;Ruelens, et al, 2018). Finally, following the same logic (Rothstein, 2003;Kumlin, 2004), some authors have also linked the present welfare state retrenchment (Alesina and Wacziarg, 2000;Kumlin and Haugsgjerd, 2017) and the experience of unemployment (Gallie, 1994;Polavieja, 2013) with declining trends in institutional trust.…”

Economic performance, income inequality and political trust: new evidence from a cross-national study of 14 Asian countries

“…While a few studies did address this question (Ruelens et al, 2018;Van der Meer, 2010;Van Erkel & Van der Meer, 2016), to date, none of them have been based on Asian countries. Future research could consider this longitudinal dimension, along with cross-sectional differences, in the Asian context.…”

Psychological Distress and Political Distrust during a Global Health Crisis: Evidence from a Cross-National Survey

“…Second, several cross -level interaction effects emerged using alternative measures of “government performance.” In the past, macroeconomic and corruption indicators were often operationalized as contextual predictors of political trust (Ellinas and Lamprianou, 2014; Ruelens et al, 2018; Van Erkel and Van der Meer, 2016; Van der Meer and Hakhverdian, 2017). Consistent with this line of research, CPI was used to demonstrate how it independently impacts public confidence on government capacity as well as government transparency.…”

“…A key question for the current article is: how do microlevel experiences of psychological distress stemming from the pandemic interact with macrolevel government performance indicators? Based on earlier findings, better state performances are expected to raise public confidence in and public support for the incumbent leadership (Anderson and Tverdova, 2003;Ellinas and Lamprianou, 2014;Ruelens et al, 2018;Van Erkel and Van der Meer, 2016;Wilkes, 2015).…”

“…Empirical analyses of political trust have been motivated by cultural and institutional theories (Kaasa and Andriani, 2022; Lühiste, 2006; Mishler and Rose, 2001; Suh et al, 2012), with some focusing on sociodemographic characteristics or “individual bases of political trust” (Christensen and Laegried, 2005; for more recent examples, see Hooghe et al, 2017; Ugur-Cinar et al, 2020). Particularly, trust evaluation is closely tied to the incumbent government’s economic performances (Dotti and Magistro, 2016; Ellinas and Lamprianou, 2014; Ruelens et al, 2018; Wilkes, 2015). Another key mechanism is perceived corruption (Chang and Chu, 2006; Godefroidt et al, 2017; Hakhverdian and Mayne, 2012; Torcal and Christmann, 2021).…”