Examining the Dynamic Nature of Pupils’ Educational Aspirations: A Longitudinal Mixed-model Study

Abstract

This paper describes the results from a fully integrated longitudinal mixed model study examining the nature of, changes in, and interaction between the upper secondary and higher education aspirations of Croatian pupils. The research was carried out over two academic years in which pupils approached the transition from single-structure elementary (primary and lower secondary) education to differentiated upper secondary education. The qualitative part of the study centred on an in-depth exploration of the educational aspirations of 30 pupils from five schools using a series of 118 semi-structured interviews. The quantitative part consisted of repeated questionnaire administration (N=823) while pupils progressed to the final year of elementary education. Generalised Estimating Equations for Repeated Measures Outcome and Latent Curve Growth Modelling procedures indicate significant changes in upper secondary aspirations and stable higher education aspirations over time. Qualitative analyses indicate five patterns of upper secondary education aspirations and three patterns of higher education aspirations. Analysis of the interaction between aspirations at different educational levels suggests that upper secondary aspiration mediates a pupil’s aspiration for higher education. These results suggest that special effort is necessary in order to inform pupils about their educational options at both the upper secondary and higher education levels.