Examining the impacts of climate variabilities and land use change on hydrological responses of Awash River basin, Ethiopia

Mitiku, Addisalem Bitew; Meresa, Gebreyohannes Abrha; Mulu, Tewodros; Woldemichael, A. T.

doi:10.1016/j.hydres.2022.12.002

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In general, the slope of each catchment varies from gentle to steeper at the outlet and in the middle of the watershed respectively. Tis varying slope from steeper to midlist allows for high sediment accumulation in the middle and lower portions of the Awash sub-basins [19].…”

Section: Topography Of the Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Response of Sensitive LULC Changes to Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Semihumid Urban Watershed of the Upper Awash Subbasin Using the SWAT+ Model, Oromia, Ethiopia

Tumsa

2023

Applied and Environmental Soil Science

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Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in many parts of river basins have caused water shortages, flood risks, land degradation, soil loss, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem deterioration. LULC change and topography are the main factors that cause land degradation and soil erosion in the Ethiopian highlands. The aim was to evaluate the rate of the LULC change and its effects on runoff and sediment yield in the semihumid subtropical Awash watershed using the SWAT + model. The land use maps of 2000, 2010, and 2020, along with constant climate data from 1992 to 2020, were used to investigate the effects of LULC dynamics on runoff and sediment yields. Agriculture and urbanization both increased at 7.1% and 7.95%, respectively. In contrast, the forest area decreased by 8.8% and shrubland by 3.25% from 2000 to 2020. Bare soil and urban areas covered the majority of the landscape units that were labeled as potential runoff generators. The majority of the soil erosion-prone areas that were classified as severe in the second and third scenarios covered a sizable area of urban, agricultural, and shrubland. These soil erosion hotspots covered an area of 3,777.3 ha (3.18%) and 13,413.1 ha (11.3%), with a total annual sediment yield of 361.93 m/ton and 1239.24 m/ton, respectively. In general, the change in LULC results in the annual sediment yield, with mean annual amounts of 241.8 tons/ha, 408.7 tons/ha, and 732.4 tons/ha for each scenario in the sequence. The model performance was tested using R2 = 0.88, NSE = 0.9, and PBIAS = −2.36, which indicate good agreement between simulated and observed flow, and R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.86, and PBIAS = 4.38 for the simulated against recorded sediment yield. The increases in sediment yields have serious implications for reservoir siltation downstream of the watershed and warn land use managers to take action.

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Section: Topography Of the Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Response of Sensitive LULC Changes to Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Semihumid Urban Watershed of the Upper Awash Subbasin Using the SWAT+ Model, Oromia, Ethiopia

Tumsa

2023

Applied and Environmental Soil Science

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“…Variabilities in river flows are expected to decrease by 4.4% (6.8%) for BAU (CCU) scenarios, contributing to favorable impacts on hydrological droughts. A recent study also suggests that CC may positively affect hydrological droughts due to expected changes in precipitation; however, the extreme droughts will be negatively impacted 12 , 51 . Once in decade hydrological droughts are expected to be 34% more severe under CC, while they will be 5% and 12% less severe under LUC of BAU and CCU, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…LUC are mainly driven by a combination of anthropogenic factors such as socio-economy, politics, environment, and technology; however, they are also affected directly/indirectly by climate change through alteration of disturbance patterns and species distributions and expansion in new areas 11 , 12 . Climate change can also be a catalyst to promote anthropogenic drivers of LUC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand

Khadka,

Babel,

Tingsanchali

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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The impacts of climate change (CC) on droughts are well documented, but the effects of land-use change (LUC) are poorly understood. This study compares the projected individual and combined impacts of these stressors on future droughts (2021–2050), with respect to baseline (1981–2010) in one of the major tributaries of the Mekong River. LUC impacts on hydrological droughts are minimal compared to CC, with the latter expected to shorten the recurrence interval of a 20-year return period event to every 14 years. Both CC and LUC have significant impacts on agricultural droughts with heightened sensitivity. ‘Once in a Decade’ agricultural droughts will be 40% (35%) longer and 88% (87%) more severe under the CC (LUC) scenario. Under both stressors, the events occurring every 20 years will be twice as frequent. Results highlight the intensification of future droughts and the urgency for actions to mitigate/adapt to climate change and manage land use. Future policy shall holistically address agricultural water management, sustainable land use management, and crop management to cope with future droughts. We recommend developing resilient agricultural practices, enhanced water resource management strategies, and incorporating drought risk into land-use planning to mitigate the compounded impacts of CC and LUC.

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“…To determine the land cover change model, the Marcov chain Celluler Automata formula [19] is used which uses the assumption that future land cover changes xt +1, and ( t +1) depend on current conditions expressed by xt .To determine the transition matrix for land cover change, the formula proposed by [20,21] as follows: 𝑃1.1𝑝1.2𝑝1. 𝑛 𝑃 = (𝑝𝑖𝑗) = 𝑝2.1𝑝2.2𝑝2.…”

Section: Analysis Model Of the Land Cover Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Model of Flood Hazard Due to Land Cover Change in the Tarusan Watershed, West Sumatra –Indonesia

2023

GEOMATE

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Spatial modeling of flood hazards in the Tarusan Watershed of West Sumatra has the objectives of modeling land cover changes from 2019-2029-2039, flood numerical models, and hybrid spatial models of flood hazards. The methods used in this research are quantitative methods and field surveys to determine the accuracy of the modeling results. The results showed that land cover changes in the Tarusan Watershed experienced a decrease in land cover changes, namely primary forest and secondary forest land cover, while a land cover that experienced an increase in area was oil palm land cover and fields. The numerical model of flooding in the Tarusan Watershed shows that the peak of the flood (Qp) takes 3.12 hours, the time required to reduce the flood discharge (Tp+0.3) is which is 7.69 hours, and the time required to reduce the flood discharge (Tp+0.3+1.5T0.3) is 14.54 hours. The results of the hybrid spatial modeling of flood hazards in the Tarusan Watershed from 2019 to 2039 have undergone extensive changes. Changes in the area affected by floods from 2019 to 2029 are 323.91 ha, and changes (prediction) in the area affected by floods from 2029 to 2039 are 242.58 ha Land cover changes from 2019 to 2029 affect flood discharge by 5.65%, and land cover changes from 2029 to 2039 affect flood discharge by 8.55%. For flood disaster mitigation efforts, it is necessary to have information to the community living in the Tarusan Watershed that a flood disaster will occur if the rainfall intensity is more than 50 mm/hour with a duration of 1.11 hours, then the time needed to reach the peak of the flood is 3.12 hours, so that the community can anticipate the losses that will arise from the flood disaster

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Examining the impacts of climate variabilities and land use change on hydrological responses of Awash River basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 23 publications

References 48 publications

The Response of Sensitive LULC Changes to Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Semihumid Urban Watershed of the Upper Awash Subbasin Using the SWAT+ Model, Oromia, Ethiopia

The Response of Sensitive LULC Changes to Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Semihumid Urban Watershed of the Upper Awash Subbasin Using the SWAT+ Model, Oromia, Ethiopia

Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand

Spatial Model of Flood Hazard Due to Land Cover Change in the Tarusan Watershed, West Sumatra –Indonesia

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