Examining the Impacts of Pre-Fire Forest Conditions on Burn Severity Using Multiple Remote Sensing Platforms

Abstract

Pre-fire environmental conditions play a critical role in wildfire severity. This study investigated the impact of pre-fire forest conditions on burn severity as a result of the 2020 Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains in Arizona. Using a stepwise regression model and remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 and LiDAR, we analyzed the effects of structural and functional vegetation traits and environmental factors on burn severity. This analysis revealed that the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was a more reliable indicator of burn severity compared to the relative dNBR (RdNBR). Stepwise regression identified pre-fire normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), canopy cover, and tree density as significant variables across all land cover types that explained burn severity, suggesting that denser areas with higher vegetation greenness experienced more severe burns. Interestingly, residuals between the actual and estimated dNBR were lower in herbaceous zones compared to denser forested areas at similar elevations, suggesting potentially more predictable burn severity in open areas. Spatial analysis using Geary’s C statistics further revealed a strong negative autocorrelation: areas with high burn severity tended to be clustered, with lower severity areas interspersed. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of readily available remote sensing data to predict potential burn severity values before a fire event, providing valuable information for forest managers to develop strategies for mitigating future wildfire damage.