Examining the Influence of Jessica’s Law on Reported Forcible Rape

Abstract

Since the 1990s, several measures intended to deter sexual offending have been instituted by state governments. A recent example is Jessica’s Law. First adopted in Florida, variations of Jessica’s Law have since been enacted by the majority of states. The impact of this legislation on forcible rape remains unexplored. Using a general deterrence framework, we apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to monthly Uniform Crime Report (UCR) aggregations of reported forcible rape from 2000 to 2011 in states requiring lifetime electronic monitoring of convicted sex offenders as a condition of Jessica’s Law. Results indicate a null relationship between Jessica’s Law and reported forcible rape. Policy implications related to the efficacy of sex offender legislation and alternatives for reducing sexual offending are discussed.

Support for the Death Penalty in Cases of Rape and Sexual Assault: Variation between Victim Age Categories

“…There are also important implications for policy and practice that stem from such exploration. In the U.S., perpetual panic associated with sex crimes has promoted increasingly harsh punishments meted out against sex offenders (Burchfield et al, 2014;Calkins et al, 2014;Dierenfeldt & Carson, 2017;Vasquez et al, 2008). This trend culminated with the decision by multiple state governments to allow capital punishment as a sentencing option in cases involving child victims before being struck down in Kennedy v. Louisiana in 2008.…”

“…Spurred by public support, more punitive sex offender laws were legislated (Jenkins, 1998;Meloy et al, 2013;Vess, 2009), including the use of registries, community notification, residency restrictions, and electronic monitoring. Further, despite the abject failure of these initiatives to reduce the frequency of sexual victimization (e.g., Dierenfeldt & Carson, 2017;Vasquez et al, 2008), they remain popular with the public as a consequence of a perpetual panic that surrounds sex offenders (Burchfield et al, 2014). Indeed, multiple studies illustrate the fear and outrage associated with sex offenders (Brown et al, 2008;Craun & Theriot, 2009;Kernsmith et al, 2009;Levenson et al, 2007;Olver & Barlow, 2010;Schiavone & Jeglic, 2009), a phenomenon that likely stems, in part, from misperceptions concerning their offending patterns and recidivism rates (Calleja, 2015;Cortoni et al, 2010;Hanson & Bussiere, 1998;Hanson & Harris, 2001;Hanson et al, 2003;Meloy et al, 2008;Sample & Bray, 2003;Vess & Skelton, 2010;Zevitz, 2006).…”

Global Positioning System Monitoring of High-Risk Sex Offenders: Implementation Challenges and Lessons Learned

“…However, another evaluation reported no differences between the behaviors of people convicted of sex offenses who were monitored via GPS and a comparison group of people convicted of sex offenses with respect to parole violations, new criminal charges, or the number of days until the first violation (Tennessee Board of Probation and Parole and Middle Tennessee State University, 2007). Also, in an interrupted time series analysis, Dierenfeldt and Carson (2017) did not find a significant effect on the deterrence of offenders convicted of forcible rape with respect to the lifetime electronic monitoring components of Jessica’s law.…”

An Examination of Multiple Factors Influencing Support for Sex Offender Policy

“…Across multiple studies, the results have been consistent. For example, Dierenfeldt and Carson (2017) found null to negligible effects of mandatory electronic monitoring on incidence of rape across multiple states. Similarly, Merken (2015) found negligible and nonsignificant long-term effects of residency restrictions on rape arrest rates in two states, and Nobles, Levenson, and Youstin (2012) found no change in all sex crime arrests and sex offender recidivism before and after implementation of residency restrictions in Florida.…”