Examples of Application of GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy

Abstract

Abstract:GA SAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations can be predicted of either single landslides or sets of slope movements of the same type in a homogeneous environment. The model requires a rainfall series and a set of dates of landslide activation as input data. Calibration is performed through genetic algorithms, and allows for determining a family of optimal kernels to weight antecedent rainfall properly. As output, the mobility function highlights critical conditions of slope stability. Based on suitable calibration and validation samples of activation dates, the model represents a useful tool to be integrated in early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation purposes. In the present paper, examples of application to three rock slides in Calabria and to cases of soil slips in Campania are discussed. Calibration and validation are discussed, based on independent datasets. Obtained results are either excellent for two of the Calabrian rock slides or just promising for the remaining case studies. The best performances of the model take advantage of an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslides, and a proper hydrological characterization of the sites. For such cases, GA SAKe could be usefully employed within early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation and Civil Protection purposes. Finally, a new release of the model is presently under test: its innovative features are briefly presented.

Inventory of geo-hydrological phenomena in Genova municipality (NW Italy)

“…An integrated map of landslide and flood hazard for a territory with a complex morphology and a strong urbanization allows to assess the relationships between the different sources of hazard and between them and the exposed population, buildings and infrastructures (Terranova et al, 2018). The performed spatial analysis allowed to evaluate the high consistency of the exposed elements, by highlighting the exigence of interventions.…”

Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention

“…Among the 13 articles published in the Special Issue, 1 is a Technical Note (Terranova et al [4]), 11 are Research Articles [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15], and one is a Case Report (Schmid-Breton et al [16]). Figure 1 compares the geographic distribution of the authors and research teams publishing in the Special Issue (Figure 1a), as well as of the case studies and demonstration sites ( Figure 1b).…”

“…Terranova et al [4] applied the GASAKe, an empirical-hydrological model that aims at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides, in four case studies in two different regions of Italy-three rock slides in Calabria and one soil slip in Campania. As a result, for two of the Calabrian rock slides, the activation dates were correctly predicted by the model, probably thanks to an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslide and a proper hydrological characterization of the site.…”

“…Word cloud of the keywords published in the papers[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] of this Special Issue.…”

Geohazards and Geomorphological Setting in Poznań Urban Area, Poland

“…This map aims on the one hand at increasing the awareness of citizens on geohazards prevention and on the other hand it should provide useful information for spatial planning, land management and risk assessment. A joint geohazards map for an area with a complex morphology and a high degree of urbanisation allows the assessment of the relationship between different provenance of geohazards and between them and residents and urban infrastructure (Terranova et al, 2018). This type of mapping is an important tool for decision makers to plan and for adopting the more adequate activities for risk mitigation and reduction (Di Salvo et al, 2017;Nicu, 2017;Paliaga et al, 2019).…”