Examples of shifting development pathways: lessons on how to enable broader, deeper, and faster climate action

Abstract

To respond to the climate crisis, we need to accelerate system transformations at a pace, scale, and breadth not seen before. This means that it is urgent to shift development pathways towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions, even while progressing towards other sustainable development objectives. This paper argues that accelerated mitigation can not only benefit from policies that are outside the domain of conventional emission-focused mitigation policies but require such policies. We refer to this process as shifting development pathways towards sustainability. Here, we explore what enabling conditions make such shifts possible. We develop a framework to select examples of shifts — in realms such as educational access, housing access, fiscal arrangements, and institutional reform. We analyse them against key enablers. Our findings suggest that countries could learn from what has worked elsewhere, though context matters. Some enablers are more widely applicable, including finance, long-term vision, and focus on sustainable development objectives. Multiple enablers, integrated policy packages, and involvement of a broad range of actors help achieve multiple objectives. Some enablers may yield results in the near term, while others take time to yield results. Based on our analysis, we suggest that climate mitigation requires an “all of economy, all of society” approach. Graphical Abstract

Non‐Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders

“…The evolution of climate risks across time and global warming levels shapes our ability to recognize and plan climate resilient systems as we shift development pathways toward sustainability (Winkler et al., 2022). Planning processes are more easily motivated in areas where projections of future risks match current impact trends (adverse or beneficial) but are less clear in regions and systems where projections indicate a substantial acceleration, deceleration, or reversal from current trends (Ebi et al., 2016).…”

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“…Shifts in development strategies that prioritize the poor or broad public interests over private consumption can reduce emissions growth. In South Africa, models show that macroeconomic policies that prioritize energy security and employment can favour renewables over fossil investments in the power sector (Winkler et al 2022). Shifts in investments towards shared infrastructure that serve basic needs, such as health or education facilities, and water and sanitation, would reduce inequality in human development and limit emissions growth Millward-Hopkins and Oswald 2023).…”

“…Weighted average cost of capital (%) Shifting development pathways towards sustainability allows mitigation considerations to be incorporated alongside a broad set of developmental objectives (Winkler et al 2022). But to do so requires developing energy transition strategies that account for both synergies and trade-offs across development and emissions outcomes in specific national contexts.…”

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“…There is a need to create an enabling environment to draw upon the advantages of synergies. In general, even though contextual factors like governance and institutional barriers can determine to what extent synergies can be utilized at national or sub-national levels, some learnings can be borrowed across boundaries (Winkler et al, 2022). For example, finance policies, long-term goals, and sustainable development objectives are some enablers applicable across various cases, particularly when integrated policy packages and numerous stakeholders are involved (Winkler et al, 2022).…”