Excess Mortality in the Face of COVID-19: Evidence from Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance Program

Endris, Bilal Shikur; Saje, Semira Mitiku; Metaferia, Zelalem Tedla; Sisay, Binyam Girma; Afework, Tsion; Mengistu, Yalemwork Getnet; Fenta, Esete Habtemariam; Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos; Petros, Adane; Worku, Aschalew; Seman, Yakob; Mariam, Damen Haile; Sisay, Mitike Molla; Karim, Ali Mehryar

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3787447

Cited by 12 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Analyses of city burials have been used in multiple settings in the absence of all-cause mortality data. Rapid mortality surveillance from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, suggested only limited underascertainment, with covid-19 deaths representing 82% of excess mortality in the third quarter of 2020 23. Before data on excess mortality were available, crematorium reports during the second wave in India were the first source that indicated extensive underascertainment of deaths, with as few as 1% of covid-19 deaths reported in some places 33…”

Section: Global Variation In Underascertainmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Whittaker

Walker²,

Alhaffar

et al. 2021

BMJ

101

100

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Estimating mortality attributable to different diseases, risk factors, or events is pivotal to inform resource allocation and evaluate public health interventions. Information on death rates and burden also supports wider aims of societal governance, public accountability, and memorialisation. Recent examples of mortality estimation include the true toll of hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, 1 mortality during famine in Somalia, 2 and the war in South Sudan. 3 Mortality data have also been essential in understanding the spread of covid-19. However, under-reporting in official death records has greatly obscured this understanding. We explore why under-reporting of deaths should have been expected, examine how use of alternative mortality sources can help advocate for a more equitable pandemic response, and highlight the crucial need for increased investment into civil registration and vital statistics systems before the next pandemic.

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Section: Global Variation In Underascertainmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Whittaker

Walker²,

Alhaffar

et al. 2021

BMJ

101

100

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show abstract

“…1 5 The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased morbidity and mortality with a surge in critical illness worldwide. [7][8][9] Many of the deaths due to critical illness are potentially preventable. [10][11][12] In critical illness, the patient's airway, breathing or circulation may become compromised, and early identification of the problem and timely care can be lifesaving.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Essential Emergency and Critical Care: a consensus among global clinical experts

et al. 2021

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BackgroundGlobally, critical illness results in millions of deaths every year. Although many of these deaths are potentially preventable, the basic, life-saving care of critically ill patients are often overlooked in health systems. Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC) has been devised as the care that should be provided to all critically ill patients in all hospitals in the world. EECC includes the effective care of low cost and low complexity for the identification and treatment of critically ill patients across all medical specialties. This study aimed to specify the content of EECC and additionally, given the surge of critical illness in the ongoing pandemic, the essential diagnosis-specific care for critically ill patients with COVID-19.MethodsIn a Delphi process, consensus (>90% agreement) was sought from a diverse panel of global clinical experts. The panel iteratively rated proposed treatments and actions based on previous guidelines and the WHO/ICRC’s Basic Emergency Care. The output from the Delphi was adapted iteratively with specialist reviewers into a coherent and feasible package of clinical processes plus a list of hospital readiness requirements.ResultsThe 269 experts in the Delphi panel had clinical experience in different acute medical specialties from 59 countries and from all resource settings. The agreed EECC package contains 40 clinical processes and 67 requirements, plus additions specific for COVID-19.ConclusionThe study has specified the content of care that should be provided to all critically ill patients. Implementing EECC could be an effective strategy for policy makers to reduce preventable deaths worldwide.

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“…Nevertheless, more deaths compared with similar periods during previous years have been reported from cemeteries in Addis Ababa. 15 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities

Gudina

Ali

Girma

et al. 2021

The Lancet Global Health

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Excess Mortality in the Face of COVID-19: Evidence from Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance Program

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Essential Emergency and Critical Care: a consensus among global clinical experts

Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities

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