Excess mortality patterns during 1918–1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA

Dahal, Sushma; Jenner, Melinda Eva; Dinh, Linh; Mizumoto, Kenji; Viboud, Cécile; Chowell, Gerardo

doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.12.005

Cited by 33 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…We also found evidence of a powerful recrudescent wave after the enduring second wave; the recrudescent wave peaked at the very end of 1919 and appeared throughout the world in the spring of 1920 ( 1 , 3 , 9 , 17 , 19 – 21 , 24 , 37 , 44 ). In Madrid, all-cause excess rates were on par with those of the elongated second wave, and all-cause and respiratory-related excess mortality rates were higher than in the spring 1918 wave.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…In Madrid, all-cause excess rates were on par with those of the elongated second wave, and all-cause and respiratory-related excess mortality rates were higher than in the spring 1918 wave. In other countries and cities where this wave has been documented, a slight shift in the age-specific mortality often occurred, with a return to high excess mortality among people older than 65 years ( 9 , 17 , 19 , 21 , 24 ). As in our study, the death rate of young adults reported in these locations often dropped slightly but remained persistently high and well above the prepandemic level.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although much progress has been made in uncovering the age-specific mortality patterns of this pandemic in several populations in Latin America ( 17 – 20 ), the United States, and Europe ( 21 – 24 ), more studies are needed to make sense of the heterogeneous death impact of this pandemic across different populations around the world. For instance, by characterizing and comparing the age-specific excess death rates across pandemic waves during 1918–1920 in different populations, researchers could suggest alternative hypotheses on the drivers of pandemic mortality risk at the time and place more emphasis on less-studied phenomena associated with the pandemic.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain

Cilek

Chowell

Fariñas

2018

American Journal of Epidemiology

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Although much progress has been made to uncover age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in populations around the world, more studies in different populations are needed to make sense of the heterogeneous death impact of this pandemic. We assessed the absolute and relative magnitudes of 3 pandemic waves in the city of Madrid, Spain, between 1918 and 1920, on the basis of age-specific all-cause and respiratory excess death rates. Excess death rates were estimated using a Serfling model with a parametric bootstrapping approach to calibrate baseline death levels with quantified uncertainty. Excess all-cause and pneumonia and influenza mortality rates were estimated for different pandemic waves and age groups. The youngest and oldest persons experienced the highest excess mortality rates, and young adults faced the highest standardized mortality risk. Waves differed in strength; the peak standardized mortality risk occurred during the herald wave in spring 1918, but the highest excess rates occurred during the fall and winter of 1918/1919. Little evidence was found to support a "W"-shaped, age-specific excess mortality curve. Acquired immunity may have tempered a protracted fall wave, but recrudescent waves following the initial 2 outbreaks heightened the total pandemic mortality impact.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain

Cilek

Chowell

Fariñas

2018

American Journal of Epidemiology

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“…City in February 1918 [1] and in Kentucky [5], Arizona [9], Missouri [10] and military training camps throughout the country in March-April 1918 [32]. Influenza incidence increased in Figure 4B).…”

Section: In the Us Such Epidemiological Evidence Supports Pandemic Amentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Such data originated from nearly forgotten mortality and morbidity reports available from surveillance systems established in the US and Europe 100 years ago (see for example [1][2][3][4][5]) and from labor-intensive compilation of church records, grave yards, and individual death certificates (e.g. [5][6][7][8][9][10]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies

Simonsen

Chowell

Andreasen

et al. 2018

Annals of Epidemiology

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Mounting epidemiological evidence supports the occurrence of a mild herald pandemic wave in the spring and summer of 1918 in North America and Europe, several months before the devastating autumn outbreak that killed an estimated 2% of the global population. These epidemiological findings corroborate the anecdotal observations of contemporary clinicians who reported widespread influenza outbreaks in spring and summer 1918, with sporadic occurrence of unusually severe clinical manifestations in young adults. Initially seen as controversial, these findings were eventually confirmed by retrospective identification of influenza specimens collected from U.S. soldiers who died from acute respiratory infections in May-August 1918. Other studies found that having an episode of influenza illness during the spring herald wave was highly protective in the severe autumn wave. Here, we conduct a systematic review of the clinical, epidemiological, and virological evidence supporting the global occurrence of mild herald waves of the 1918 pandemic and place these historic observations in the context of pandemic preparedness. Taken together, historic experience with the 1918 and subsequent pandemics shows that increased severity in second and later pandemic waves may be the rule rather than the exception. Thus, a sustained pandemic response in the first years following a future pandemic is critical; conversely, multiwave pandemic patterns allow for more time to rollout vaccines and antivirals.

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Pandemics, past and present: The role of biological anthropology in interdisciplinary pandemic studies

Dimka¹,

Doren

Battles

2022

American Journal of Biological Anthropology

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Biological anthropologists are ideally suited for the study of pandemics given their strengths in human biology, health, culture, and behavior, yet pandemics have historically not been a major focus of research. The COVID‐19 pandemic has reinforced the need to understand pandemic causes and unequal consequences at multiple levels. Insights from past pandemics can strengthen the knowledge base and inform the study of current and future pandemics through an anthropological lens. In this paper, we discuss the distinctive social and epidemiological features of pandemics, as well as the ways in which biological anthropologists have previously studied infectious diseases, epidemics, and pandemics. We then review interdisciplinary research on three pandemics–1918 influenza, 2009 influenza, and COVID‐19–focusing on persistent social inequalities in morbidity and mortality related to sex and gender; race, ethnicity, and Indigeneity; and pre‐existing health and disability. Following this review of the current state of pandemic research on these topics, we conclude with a discussion of ways biological anthropologists can contribute to this field moving forward. Biological anthropologists can add rich historical and cross‐cultural depth to the study of pandemics, provide insights into the biosocial complexities of pandemics using the theory of syndemics, investigate the social and health impacts of stress and stigma, and address important methodological and ethical issues. As COVID‐19 is unlikely to be the last global pandemic, stronger involvement of biological anthropology in pandemic studies and public health policy and research is vital.

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Excess mortality patterns during 1918–1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA

Cited by 33 publications

References 32 publications

Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain

Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain

A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies

Pandemics, past and present: The role of biological anthropology in interdisciplinary pandemic studies

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