Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

Lin, Shao; Hsu, Wan‐Hsiang; Zutphen, Alissa R. Van; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni‐An

doi:10.1289/ehp.1104728

Cited by 84 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…This is a rather optimistic assumption compared to previous studies that project smaller potential acclimatization effects (e.g., [36] calculated a 25% reduction of future heat-related mortality increases due to acclimatization based on an "analog city" approach). However, estimating the degree of future acclimatization to heat is a complex issue and to date there is no standard approach to model the acclimatization effect [37].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Zacharias

Koppe

Mücke

2014

Climate

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Abstract:The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate , near future climate , and remote future climate . Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively). In addition to OPEN ACCESSClimate 2015, 3 101 changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2.4 and 5.1 in the acclimatization and non-acclimatization approach, respectively. Even though there is substantial variability across the individual model simulations, it is most likely that the future burden of heat will increase considerably. The obtained results point to public health interventions to reduce the vulnerability of the population to heat waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Zacharias

Koppe

Mücke

2014

Climate

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“…The few studies that have investigated heat and respiratory hospitalizations have found somewhat conflicting results (6). For example, studies of Brisbane, Australia (7,8) and Athens, Greece (9) found hospitalization rates decreased slightly during hot weather, whereas studies of California (10,11), New York (12,13), and 12 European cities (14) found respiratory hospitalizations increased with heat. Although a metaanalysis of current research estimated a positive relationship between heat and respiratory hospitalizations across all studies, it lacked sufficient power to distinguish this effect from a null effect (6).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…U.S. studies of heat and respiratory morbidity have been limited to single cities (12,15) or single states (California [10,11,16], New York [13]) or were retrospective studies of single heat waves (17)(18)(19). Worldwide, large heterogeneity exists between temperature-morbidity studies from different locations (6,20).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Heat-related Emergency Hospitalizations for Respiratory Diseases in the Medicare Population

Anderson¹,

Dominici

Wang

et al. 2013

Am J Respir Crit Care Med

212

168

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Rationale: The heat-related risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among the elderly has not been quantified in the United States on a national scale. With climate change predictions of more frequent and more intense heat waves, it is of paramount importance to quantify the health risks related to heat, especially for the most vulnerable. Objectives: To estimate the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases associated with outdoor heat in the U.S. elderly. Methods: An observational study of approximately 12.5 million Medicare beneficiaries in 213 United States counties, January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2008. We estimate a national average relative risk of hospitalization for each 10 8 F (5.6 8 C) increase in daily outdoor temperature using Bayesian hierarchical models. Measurements and Main Results: We obtained daily county-level rates of Medicare emergency respiratory hospitalizations (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision,(464)(465)(466)(480)(481)(482)(483)(484)(485)(486)(487)(490)(491)(492) in 213 U.S. counties from 1999 through 2008. Overall, each 10 8 F increase in daily temperature was associated with a 4.3% increase in same-day emergency hospitalizations for respiratory diseases (95% posterior interval, 3.8, 4.8%). Counties' relative risks were significantly higher in counties with cooler average summer temperatures. Conclusions: We found strong evidence of an association between outdoor heat and respiratory hospitalizations in the largest population of elderly studied to date. Given projections of increasing temperatures from climate change and the increasing global prevalence of chronic pulmonary disease, the relationship between heat and respiratory morbidity is a growing concern.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; hospitalization; hot temperature; respiratory tract infections; weatherOutdoor heat can cause spikes in respiratory deaths (1, 2), but considerably less is known about heat's impacts on respiratory morbidity. Given that: (1) climate change will increase exposure to extreme heat (3), (2) the prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases is increasing (4), and (3) the elderly will likely be most affected by heat-related problems (5), there is a pressing need to improve our understanding of respiratory heat effects among the elderly for both fatal and nonfatal outcomes.There are two major limitations to current research on the relationship between heat and respiratory hospitalizations. First, this relationship has not been adequately studied worldwide to confidently identify a consistent link between respiratory hospitalizations and heat. The few studies that have investigated heat and respiratory hospitalizations have found somewhat conflicting results (6). For example, studies of Brisbane, Australia (7,8) and Athens, Greece (9) found hospitalization rates decreased slightly during hot weather, whereas studies of California (10, 11), New York (12, 13), and 12 European cities (14) found respiratory hospitalizations increased with heat. Although a me...

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“…The * World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated more than 150,000 deaths per year due to the impact of these changes for the past three decades (8). Many previous and recent studies have shown that cold and warm ambient temperatures are relevant to increased JOHE, Summer 2013; 2 (3) risk of cardiovascular diseases and respiratory morbidity (6,(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23). Moreover, in many countries, a survey of hospitalization and emergency data has shown that ambient temperature variations affect the number and type of hospitalized patients (24)(25)(26)(27)(28).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of diurnal temperature variations on hospitalization due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Rafsanjan, Iran, in 2008-2013

Hassanlouei

Rezaeian

Sheikhfathollahi

et al. 2013

JOHE

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Received: December 2014, Accepted: February 2015 Background: Changes in global temperature and its health effects have recently been under much investigated. Consequently, these changes have affected mortality and morbidity rates which are important public health indices. The present study examines the effect of mean temperature on the frequency of hospitalization due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Ali Ibn Abi Talib Hospital of Rafsanjan, Iran. Materials and Methods:In this ecological study, data on hospitalization were gathered from electronic systems of hospitals and the data from the weather organizations were extracted from the weather station. All patients not living in Rafsanjan were excluded. Data were entered into SPSS and SAS software and the association between mean temperature and hospitalization frequency were analyzed using Poisson regression models. Results: A negative significant association was found between mean temperature and mean number of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. By each 1 °C decrease in mean temperature, the mean number of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increased by 1% (95% CI; 0.63-1.26%) and 4.33% (95% CI; 4-4.64%), respectively. For cardiovascular diseases, there was no significant difference in mean number of admissions based on different age groups. However, in the 0-4-year age group, the mean number of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases was significantly higher than the other age groups. For both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, there was no significant difference between females and males in terms of the mean number of hospitalizations. Conclusions: Reduction in mean temperature, in the present study, increased the mean number of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and it was stronger for respiratory diseases. According to these findings, people who are at risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases should be forbidden from exposure to extremely cold temperatures.

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Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

Cited by 84 publications

References 21 publications

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Heat-related Emergency Hospitalizations for Respiratory Diseases in the Medicare Population

Impact of diurnal temperature variations on hospitalization due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Rafsanjan, Iran, in 2008-2013

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