Objectives: To define the ability of early exercise testing and coronary angiography to predict prognosis in young survivors of myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: 255 consecutive patients (210 men) aged 55 years or less (mean 48 years) admitted to hospital (1981-85) were eligible. Of these, 150 patients (130 men) who were able to exercise early after MI and underwent coronary angiography within six months constituted the study group and were followed up for up to 15 years. Survival data up to 18 years was obtained for the whole cohort.Results: Survival at a median of 16 years was 52% for the whole cohort, 62% for the study group, and 48% for the excluded group. From nine years onwards survival deteriorated significantly in the study group compared with an age matched background population. Fifteen years after MI, 121 patients (81%) in the study group had had at least one event (death, MI, revascularisation, cardiac readmission, stroke) leaving 29 (19%) event-free. The number of diseased vessels was the major determinant of time to first event (p = 0.001) and event-free survival (p = 0.04). Exercise duration was also important in the prediction of time to first event (p = 0.003). Death was influenced by a history of prior MI. Conclusion: The favourable initial survival was followed by significant deterioration after nine years. This late attrition is an important treatment target. Furthermore, this study supports risk stratification early after MI combining angiography with non-invasive tools. S urvival after myocardial infarction (MI) is influenced by multiple factors, of which age stands out as a major nonmodifiable predictor of long term prognosis.1 Although short and medium term prognosis in young MI survivors is known to be excellent, [2][3][4] little is known about their long term prognosis. This prospective study was carried out over 18 years and investigated the factors that influence the survival of patients with MI stratified by early exercise testing, early angiography, and clinical parameters.
METHODS
PatientsA total of 255 consecutive patients (210 men) aged 55 years or less with mean age of 48 years were admitted to the coronary care unit of the Royal Victoria Infirmary with an MI between October 1981 and March 1985. The inhospital and three month mortality accounted for 24 (9%) deaths. Of the remaining cohort, 150 subjects (130 men) who were able to exercise after their MI and who agreed to have coronary angiography within six months of enrolment constituted the study group.
Excluded groupThe remaining 81 who either did not qualify or did not consent to early exercise testing or angiography were excluded. Of these, 37 had cardiac and non-cardiac contraindications to exercise testing (13 and 24, respectively), 14 refused to consent, and 30 were excluded because either the angiogram or the exercise test was not performed at the correct time. Except for nine (6%), none of the enrolled patients received thrombolysis. All excluded patients were also traced and information on their survival status was...