Expectations after expecting: the impact of first birth on the fertility expectations of one child women in the USA and UK

Abstract

Expectations for having children are hypothesised to be predominantly influenced by societal family norms at young ages, and are adjusted during the life course in response to changing circumstances and new information. The onset of parenthood is likely to be a key event that affects expectations. This paper explores whether the expectations of women who have only one child (one child women) change in the five years before and after first birth, using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (USA) and Understanding Society (UK). We aim to determine whether one child women are distinct in their expectations from women who go on to higher parities even before first birth, and whether the event of first birth is a catalyst for changing expectations. Our results show that, in both contexts, one child women expect closer to two children prior to, compared to after, first birth, when the trajectory declines more steeply towards one. One child women also expect fewer than higher parity mothers by the time of first birth. Our findings suggest that although one child women already expect fewer children compared to other mothers prior to first birth, their expectations are particularly affected by the onset of parenthood.

Uncertainty and Flexibility of Fertility Intentions

“…A short-term fertility intention is generally considered as a plan of action to have a child in the near future, with the underlying rationale that an intention will be indicative of subsequent behaviour, considering the perceived costs and benefits of having children (Ajzen & Klobas, 2013;Raybould & Sear, 2021). The literature uses different definitions of uncertainty in fertility intentions (Kuhnt et al, 2021) and previous research has demonstrated the importance of uncertainty and change in overall intentions (e.g., Jones, 2017;Kuhnt et al, 2021).…”