Expected Accuracy Range of Cost Estimates for Small Modular Reactors at the Early Concept Design Stage

Abstract

Life cycle cost is an important consideration for the development and selection of new power generation technology. Large nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been subject to capital cost escalation, stemming from delays related to late design changes, procurement issues for major components, and regulatory enforced changes. These factors have contributed to the significant risk premium associated with gigawatt scale “Gen III+” designs, which have incurred significant financing costs. Large NPPs have become prohibitively expensive for many utility investors in liberalized markets and smaller economies. The challenge of reducing upfront capital costs is one of the requirements that have driven the development of innovative Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These designs are said to offer reduced unit cost and reduced risk due to certainty of delivery, which could lead to a lower cost of capital for a utility customer. By offering a product with more cost certainty the SMR could restore investor confidence in nuclear power. The life cycle cost estimates associated with the different SMR designs are uncertain at the early stage of development. However, designers need to understand, with some confidence, the impact of technical decisions at the early development phase on the life cycle cost. This study presents an overview of cost uncertainty associated with the early design stage of the SMR. The types of cost estimating approaches available at the concept design phase are identified and categorized in terms of their expected accuracy ranges. The Overnight Cost of Construction (OCC) is an important driver of the life cycle cost of a power generation project. The expected accuracy ranges from each estimating method are used to illustrate the sensitivity of cost uncertainty to the level of design maturity. By understanding the sources and impact of cost uncertainty decision making during product development can be optimized to meet both technical and commercial requirements.

The derivation and visualization of supply network risk profiles from product architectures

“…Given this paper's focus on schedule risk in precertification processes, supply chain cost modelling literature is out of scope but, as with other forms of supply chain risk, the role of supply chain structure cannot be ignored. For example, Agar et al 24 . provide a review of cost estimation strategies and associated uncertainties in the early concept design of small modular reactors which, from the examples provided in the paper, depends on the reactor's product architecture and downstream life cycle processes that are specific to this kind of product.…”