One of the main challenges in dealing
with the current COVID 19 pandemic is how to
fulfill the healthcare facility demands especially
for the residents living in the rural areas that
have restricted healthcare access.
Correspondingly, this study aims to record the
daily COVID 19 cases and continue with the
forecasting of the average daily demand (ADD)
of healthcare facilities including beds, ICUs, and
ventilators using ARIMA model. The forecasts
were made for 3 rural populations located in
the southern Amazon. The model shows that
the healthcare ADD was different in each
population. Likewise, the model forecasts that
in a rural population that has the highest daily
case with projected average cases equal to 67
cases/day (95%CI: 24, 110), that population has
to fulfill healthcare ADD consisting of 57
beds/day (95%CI: 21, 93), 8 ICUs/day (95%CI: 2,
14), and 2 ventilators/day (95%CI: 2, 3). To
conclude, the ARIMA model has addressed
critical questions about ADD for beds, ICUs, and
ventilators for rural residents. This ARIMA
model based healthcare plan will hopefully
provide versatile tool to improve healthcare
resource allocations.