Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

Abstract

Study questionWhat effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico?MethodsUsing recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario.Study answer and limitationsTen years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches.What this study addsThe sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Obesity and the food system transformation inLatin America

“…The Mexican taxes on sugary beverages (about 10% excise tax) and nonessential foods (about 8% tax) are among the most rigorously studied. Both have been shown to have a negative impact on purchases, but their overall impact on diets and food purchases and their long-term obesity prevention effects are the subjects only of simulation studies to date (55,56,(222)(223)(224)(225)(226)(227). Other countries, like Chile, have instituted quite small taxes, and their evaluations are not published yet.…”

Childhood obesity in Mexico: social determinants of health and other risk factors

“…As a result of the high SSBs consumption among Mexicans, in 2014, the government implemented an excise tax of 1 peso/L (10%) on several SSBs; a year later, the consumption of SSBs decreased by 6%, especially among households of lower socioeconomic status 29 31. Moreover, a recent study concluded that doubling the SSBs tax to 20% could lead to larger benefits 32. A recent meta-analysis concluded that there was a direct association between SSBs consumption and weight gain, overweight and obesity in children; although some discrepancies were identified in some studies 33.…”

The Millennial Physician and the Obesity Epidemic

“…The modest association of sugar-sweetened beverage intake with incident CKD noted in the Jackson Heart Study holds strong public health implications and should not be dismissed. The country of Mexico has one of the highest rates of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in the world, and approximately 10% of total calories consumed per day in Mexico are from sugar-sweetened beverages (8). This epidemic of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption has been accompanied by a rapid increase in diabetes, the number one listed cause of death in Mexico.…”

“…Importantly, at least 30% of the excess deaths attributed to diabetes are due to kidney failure (9). In January of 2014, the Mexican government issued a 1 peso per liter tax on sugarsweetened beverage, and within 1 year its consumption declined by 7.1% (8). The tax is currently predicted to prevent 86,000-134,000 cases of diabetes by 2030, but if the tax is increased to 2 pesos per liter, the number of prevented diabetes cases could exceed 260,000 (8).…”

“…The burden of the obesity epidemic will probably fall heavily on the millennial generation. If this generation is willing to engage in the fight, it could start by pushing local municipalities to enact policies that curb sugarsweetened beverage consumption at the population level (8,10).…”