Experiments on the Effects of Opinion Polls and Implications for Laws Banning Pre-election Polling

Donovan, Todd; Bowler, Shaun

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40573-5_8

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…19 This appears to be as true for pro-and anti-government partisans as it is for non-partisans, which runs contrary to research which anticipates poll effects to be strongest among those with weaker preferences and allegiances (e.g. Mutz 1997;Donovan and Bowler 2016). 20 This result casts yet more empirical doubt on the purported effect of polls on vote-switching, at least for supporters of larger parties.…”

Section: Study Ii: Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…However, while theories detailing these potential effects of polls on voting behaviour are abundant, robust empirical evidence to support these ideas are scarce (for a comprehensive review, see Hardmeier 2008). The effects of polls on vote choice, for example, may be limited to certain subgroups of the electorate (Blais, Gidengil, and Nevitte 2006;Fredén 2014;Donovan and Bowler 2016), contingent on media coverage (Stolwijk, Schuck, and de Vreese 2017), or in some cases negligible (Sonck and Loosveldt 2010). With regard to turnout, however, there is considerably less empirical evidence to support such theories and experimental and quasi-experimental work chiefly concerns the effect of close elections in mobilising voters (e.g., Ansolabehere and Iyengar 1994;Großer and Schram 2010;Morton et al 2015).…”

Section: The Effects Of Opinion Pollsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include age, sex, education level, political knowledge, party identification (the blocking variable), and party attachment. In addition to demographic considerations, political knowledge is included as political sophisticates may be more resistant to polling information whilst also being more pre-disposed to participate (Donovan and Bowler 2016). Results: Vote Choice Figure 3 suggests limited evidence that opinion polls affect the party choice of most citizens.…”

Section: Study Ii: Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this light, polls can serve as an information shortcut to indicate the viability of candidates or parties (Bartels 1996). However, such effects have proven difficult to consistently replicate and studies report results ranging from negligible (Sonck and Loosveldt 2010) to conditional poll effects (Donovan and Bowler 2016). This is in line with a developing vein of research which has found that polling information is not perceived as equally credible by all, and that partisanship is a key factor in determining poll credibility due to a pre-disposition toward preference-congruent information (e.g., Kuru, Pasek, and Traugott 2017; Madson and Hillygus 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Poll Wars: Perceptions of Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviour

Dawson

2022

The International Journal of Press/Politics

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Pre-election opinion polls are an increasingly prominent aspect of political campaigns, yet they often vary in terms of their results, sources, and where they are published. Citizens are therefore increasingly confronted with the proposition of which polls to give more credence to than others in shaping their voting behaviour. This study investigates the relationship between subjective determinations of poll credibility and voting behaviour in the polarised context of Turkish mayoral elections. The theoretical perspective of motivated reasoning is employed to consider how individuals determine and act upon credible opinion polls in mixed information environments. Using an original two-step experimental approach conducted in 2020, this paper establishes that while the effects of opinion poll credibility on party choice are limited to the strategic considerations of the supporters of smaller parties, opinion polls can have considerable demobilising effects when polling environments are conflicting or deemed not credible. The findings produced in this study are more suggestive of accuracy-seeking than directional motivations, and they have considerable implications for how we think about the relationship between polls, politicians, and voters.

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Section: Study Ii: Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: The Effects Of Opinion Pollsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Ii: Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Poll Wars: Perceptions of Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviour

Dawson

2022

The International Journal of Press/Politics

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“…This development is accompanied by a longstanding academic and public debate on the potential effects of public opinion polls on citizens' voting intentions. On the one hand, several studies have shown that polls can be critical in influencing whether citizens decide to vote on election day and whom they vote for (Dahlgaard et al., 2017; Donovan & Bowler, 2016; Stolwijk et al., 2017; van der Meer et al., 2016). On the other hand, some studies cast doubt on whether polls significantly impact election outcomes (e.g., Blais et al., 2018; Daoust, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls?

KRAUSE,

GAHN

2023

European J Political Res

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Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real‐world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion‐poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.

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The Regulation of Pre-election Polls: A Citizen’s Perspective

Daoust

Mongrain

2023

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

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The number of legislations around the world restricting the use and publication of pre-election polls during election campaigns is on the rise. However, we do not have a good sense of the extent to which citizens are against the publication of pre-election polls and what factors drive support or opposition for their regulation. In this research note, we tackle these issues using data from the 2019 Canadian Election Study. Our findings show that citizens are quite divided on whether polls should be banned during the last week of the campaign. Moreover, contrary to our expectations, we find almost no evidence of partisan effects in citizens’ opinions about the regulation of polls. We interpret these findings as good news for democracy as citizens, at least in some contexts, do not seem to rely on partisan considerations when it comes to the regulation of political information.

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Experiments on the Effects of Opinion Polls and Implications for Laws Banning Pre-election Polling

Cited by 3 publications

References 32 publications

Poll Wars: Perceptions of Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviour

Poll Wars: Perceptions of Poll Credibility and Voting Behaviour

Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls?

The Regulation of Pre-election Polls: A Citizen’s Perspective

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