Expert elicitation approach for performing ATHEANA quantification

Forester, John A.; Bley, Dennis C.; Cooper, Susan E.; Lois, Erasmia; Siu, Nathan; Kolaczkowski, A.M.; Wreathall, John

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2003.09.011

Cited by 61 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…ATHEANA (A Technique for Human Analysis) [9] is a second generation tool described as a method for obtaining qualitative and quantitative HRA results. The instrument is based on the weighted average of the conditional probabilities of all unsafe acts which contribute to Human Failure Events (HFE), and it is exploited as a function of all the Error Forcing Contexts (EFC) for a specific scenario.…”

Section: Second Generation Methods Hramentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Reliability in Man-machine Systems

Havlikova

Jirgl

Bradáč

2015

Procedia Engineering

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This paper discusses the state of the art in the reliability analysis of human operators. Such analyses generally comprise human reliability assessment (HRA) in Man-Machine Systems (MMS) and involve the description of available human behaviour models. In the given context, man-machine systems represent the actual interaction between a human operator and a technical system. The authors introduce systems where the human factor plays an essential role and the failure of a human being could lead to a safety hazard. Currently, the quantitative evaluation of human reliability is based on the total probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of the entire MMS.

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Section: Second Generation Methods Hramentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Reliability in Man-machine Systems

Havlikova

Jirgl

Bradáč

2015

Procedia Engineering

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“…Therefore, the elicitation questions have to be formulated such that they are easily understood without compromising the accuracy of the needed data. Formal and systematic elicitation process was applied in various applications such as nuclear safety [5], risk assessment [6] and human reliability assessment [7]. The different elicitation approaches are extensively discussed by O'Hagan et al [8] In addition to the elicitation process, another important factor is what criteria can be used to qualify an individual as the expert.…”

Section: Elicitation Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Assessment of Repairable System through Expert Elicitation

Muhammad

Mokhtar

Hussin

2014

MATEC Web of Conferences

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Abstract. The effect of unplanned downtime cannot be more over emphasized which can range from minor disturbance to catastrophic to plant operation. As much as possible the occurrence of failure has to be reduced or eliminated by putting more focus on planned downtime. This initiative can be accomplished by predicting the equipment failure accurately such that appropriate preventive actions can be planned and taken in order to minimize the failure as wells as the impact of equipment failure. However, accurate prediction depends highly on data availability and data scarcity remains one of the main challenges in applying reliability analysis. This paper presents the use of experts' tacit knowledge in the analysis to predict the probability of occurrence of system failure. This is done through the integration of expert elicitation, analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and least squared method to estimate the system failure distribution from which other reliability measures can be derived. The result showed statistical equivalence at 90% confidence level compared with estimation based on failure data proving the validity of the method in cases where failure data is unavailable.

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“…The fields of defence, engineering, and risk assessment were instrumental in the early development and promotion of structured elicitation protocols (for example, methods proposed by Keeney and von Winterfeldt, Cooke, and Morgan et al). There has been some discussion as to how these protocols could be adapted and applied to reliability assessments . However, recent examples of their application are few and far between, suggesting that such protocols are not being widely applied in reliability assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols

Hemming

Armstrong

Burgman

et al. 2019

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Quantitative expert judgements are used in reliability assessments to inform critically important decisions. Structured elicitation protocols have been advocated to improve expert judgements, yet their application in reliability is challenged by a lack of examples or evidence that they improve judgements. This paper aims to overcome these barriers. We present a case study where two world‐leading protocols, the IDEA protocol and the Classical Model, were combined and applied by the Australian Department of Defence for a reliability assessment. We assess the practicality of the methods and the extent to which they improve judgements. The average expert was extremely overconfident, with 90% credible intervals containing the true realisation 36% of the time. However, steps contained in the protocols substantially improved judgements. In particular, an equal weighted aggregation of individual judgements and the inclusion of a discussion phase and revised estimate helped to improve calibration, statistical accuracy, and the Classical Model score. Further improvements in precision and information were made via performance weighted aggregation. This paper provides useful insights into the application of structured elicitation protocols for reliability and the extent to which judgements are improved. The findings raise concerns about existing practices for utilising experts in reliability assessments and suggest greater adoption of structured protocols is warranted. We encourage the reliability community to further develop examples and insights.

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Expert elicitation approach for performing ATHEANA quantification

Cited by 61 publications

References 8 publications

Human Reliability in Man-machine Systems

Human Reliability in Man-machine Systems

Reliability Assessment of Repairable System through Expert Elicitation

Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols

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