Expert judgement as an estimating method

Hughes, Robert T.

doi:10.1016/0950-5849(95)01045-9

Cited by 144 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…There is some evidence to suggest that practitioners use analogies when making estimates by means of informal methods [8]. Our approach allows users to assess the reasoning process behind a prediction by identifying the most analogous projects thereby increasing, or reducing, their confidence in the prediction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating software project effort using analogies

Shepperd

Schofield

1997

IIEEE Trans. Software Eng.

792

703

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Abstract-Accurate project effort prediction is an important goal for the software engineering community. To date most work has focused upon building algorithmic models of effort, for example COCOMO. These can be calibrated to local environments. We describe an alternative approach to estimation based upon the use of analogies. The underlying principle is to characterize projects in terms of features (for example, the number of interfaces, the development method or the size of the functional requirements document). Completed projects are stored and then the problem becomes one of finding the most similar projects to the one for which a prediction is required. Similarity is defined as Euclidean distance in n-dimensional space where n is the number of project features. Each dimension is standardized so all dimensions have equal weight. The known effort values of the nearest neighbors to the new project are then used as the basis for the prediction. The process is automated using a PC-based tool known as ANGEL. The method is validated on nine different industrial datasets (a total of 275 projects) and in all cases analogy outperforms algorithmic models based upon stepwise regression. From this work we argue that estimation by analogy is a viable technique that, at the very least, can be used by project managers to complement current estimation techniques.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach has been criticized by Hughes [8], among others, as effectively being two distinct measures that should not be combined.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating software project effort using analogies

Shepperd

Schofield

1997

IIEEE Trans. Software Eng.

792

703

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In spite of the existence of many other more formal or semiformal alternatives there remains strong evidence of the continued use of expert judgment in project management (Heemstra, 1992;Host and Wohlin, 1998;Hughes, 1996) and there is little suggestion that it will be entirely superseded by other approaches. However, there is also evidence of bias in such expert estimation (DeMarco, 1982;.…”

Section: Expert Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining techniques to optimize effort predictions in software project management

MacDonell

Shepperd

2003

Journal of Systems and Software

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“…Among the frequently-used evaluation methods expert judgement is mainly used for the qualitative assessment; the Monte Carlo simulation method and decision tree analysis are used for the quantitative assessment; and the analytic hierarchy process-based method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and grey evaluation are used for the qualitative-quantitative assessment. Each of them has its own advantages and disadvantages (see Table 1), and is applicable for different situations [16][17][18][19][20][21]. The comparison of strong and weak points between those evaluation methods have been discussed, which indicates that the comprehensive evaluation method is superior to a single quantitative or qualitative evaluation method [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of China’s Overseas Oil Refining Investment Using a Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Dong

Jiang

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Following the "going out" strategy, Chinese oil and gas companies have been widely involved in investing and operating business abroad to mitigate the increasing energy imbalance between supply and demand. Overseas oil investment, characterized by high risks and high returns, plays a significant role in ensuring energy security and strengthening global competitiveness in China. However, compared with overseas upstream projects, the downstream oil refining investment is still in the preliminary development stage, with limited experience for references, which further increases the risk surrounding such multibillion-dollar ventures. Hence, it is significant to assess the investment risks so as to help investors be fully aware of them and then make optimal investment decisions. To this end, this paper successfully identifies the main risk factors, including the local investment environment risk, technical risk, organization management risk, health, safety and environment (HSE) and social responsibility risk, and economic risk. Then, a qualitative-quantitative comprehensive risk evaluation method, combining the fuzzy mathematics and the grey system theory, is proposed and applied to analyze the investment risks of one Chinese overseas oil refining project as a case study. The assessment results are basically in accordance with the practical conditions, which validate the reliability and reasonability of the proposed risk assessment model in regard to the overseas oil refining project. The findings of this research provide the theoretical foundation and practical methodology of the risk analysis for future investment in oil refining areas.

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Expert judgement as an estimating method

Cited by 144 publications

References 13 publications

Estimating software project effort using analogies

Estimating software project effort using analogies

Combining techniques to optimize effort predictions in software project management

Risk Assessment of China’s Overseas Oil Refining Investment Using a Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method

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