Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system

Rongen, Guus; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Kok, Matthijs

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108535

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…(Sebok et al, 2021) recently applied expert elicitation to reduce uncertainty in climate model predictions. (Kindermann et al, 2020) reproduced historical water levels using structured expert judgment (SEJ), and (Rongen et al, 2022b) recently applied SEJ to estimate dike failure probabilities for the Dutch part of the river Rhine. While examples are not abundantly available, using prior information to decrease the uncertainty and sensitivity for extrapolation, is not new.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using structured expert judgment to Estimate extreme river discharges: a case study of the Meuse River

Rongen

Morales-Nápoles

Kok

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Accurate estimation of extreme discharges in rivers, such as the Meuse, is crucial for effective flood risk assessment. However, existing statistical and hydrological models that estimate these discharges often lack transparency regarding the uncertainty of their predictions, as evidenced by the devastating flood event that occurred in July 2021 which was not captured by the existing model for estimating design discharges. This article proposes an alternative approach with a central role for expert judgment, using Cooke’s method. A simple statistical model was developed for the river basin, consisting of correlated GEV-distributions for discharges in upstream sub-catchments. The model was fitted to expert judgments, measurements, and the combination of both, using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results from the model fitted only to measurements were accurate for more frequent events, but less certain for extreme events. Using expert judgment reduced uncertainty for these extremes but was less accurate for more frequent events. The combined approach provided the most plausible results, with Cooke's method reducing the uncertainty by appointing most weight to two of the seven experts. The study demonstrates that utilizing hydrological experts in this manner can provide plausible results with a relatively limited effort, even in situations where measurements are scarce or unavailable.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using structured expert judgment to Estimate extreme river discharges: a case study of the Meuse River

Rongen

Morales-Nápoles

Kok

2023

Preprint

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“…In this study, an assessment by an expert is considered to be more accurate because it relates to the sufficient experience of each expert, according to research [37,38]. There are two types of expert research: mathematical and behavioral.…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining Factors of Fixed Offshore Platform Inspections in Indonesia

2023

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Damage to fixed offshore platforms can affect their structural integrity in addition to environmental conditions. Inspections are important because they aim to detect and control defects or damage to make repairs and carry out maintenance, if necessary, to reduce the possibility of failure. This study aims to determine the factors that affect inspections of fixed offshore platforms in Indonesia. To determine these factors, questionnaires were distributed to experts, including senior practitioners and Ph.D. academics, involved in offshore platforms. For data processing, we first used descriptive statistics based on the mean and SD to indicate the ranking of a factor’s importance. Secondly, we performed factor analyses to summarize the information contained in multiple factors. The two methods are carried out to complement each other in determining the factors formed from the respondents’ assessments. This study finds three factors in inspections of fixed offshore platforms based on the percentage variance: the first factor is environmental conditions, the second is structural design, and the third is anomalies and defects. By knowing these factors, such comprehension can be used as a consideration in conducting inspections. Each factor must be identified because each factor can affect inspections of fixed offshore platforms.

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“…These approaches either concern wave‐induced overtopping (i.e., not overflowing) or require extensive historical data. An alternative approach, when such detailed data are unavailable, is to use expert judgment to estimate failure by overflowing, as done by Hathout et al (2020) and Rongen et al (2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study

Mainguenaud

Peyras

Khan

et al. 2023

J Flood Risk Management

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Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method of levee failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. We tested two approaches to aggregate those fragility curves into a global fragility curve respectively using: an enveloping curve and Monte‐Carlo simulations. We implemented this approach to earthen levee reliability for several flood return periods to the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. We used limit equilibrium method to estimate the safety factor of the levee segment and Monte‐Carlo simulations to estimate sliding probabilities. We used Terzaghi's critical hydraulic gradient to estimate backward erosion failure probabilities. The estimation of overflowing probabilities required expert judgment. We discussed how the choice of the hydraulic gradient area and the consideration of a steady state or transient model impact backward erosion failure probabilities. The results showed for our study case that, even though the transient model is a closer representation of reality, the levee saturation parameter has little impact on hydraulic gradient values, by extension, on sliding and backward erosion failure probabilities. The Monte‐Carlo aggregated fragility curve is more realistic than the envelop curve of the failure mechanisms for an equivalent computation time.

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Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system

Cited by 13 publications

References 21 publications

Using structured expert judgment to Estimate extreme river discharges: a case study of the Meuse River

Using structured expert judgment to Estimate extreme river discharges: a case study of the Meuse River

Determining Factors of Fixed Offshore Platform Inspections in Indonesia

A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study

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