Expert Judgment Versus Public Opinion ? Evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest

Abstract

For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to answer that question empirically, using national finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. We show that experts are better judges of quality in the sense that the outcome of finals judged by experts is less sensitive to factors unrelated to quality than the outcome of finals judged by public opinion. Yet, experts are not perfect; their judgment does still depend on such factors. This is also the case in the European finals of the contest.

Languages, Genes, and Cultures

“…Ginsburgh and Flores (1996), Glejser and Heyndels (2001), and Ginsburgh and Van Ours (2003) point this out for one of the top-ranked international piano competitions. Similar observation are made by Haan, Dijkstra and Dijkstra (2003) for the contest that we are dealing with. The exogenous order in which candidates perform is thus also included.…”

“…Until 1997, each country was represented by judges. Televoting was introduced in 1998, so that every citizen can participate, and according to Haan, Dijkstra and Dijkstra (2003), "in many countries, the number of people calling in to register their vote is in the hundreds of thousands." Results in each country are aggregated and announced after all votes have been cast.…”

The structure of bias in peer voting systems: lessons from the Eurovision Song Contest

“…Flôres and Ginsburgh (1996) who establish such serial position effects for the Queen Elisabeth music competition. Haan et al (2005) and Bruine de Bruin (2005) find similar biases in the votes for the Eurovision Song Contest. Ginsburgh and Noury (2006), who analyze the voting behavior in the same contest, show that voters tend to favor songs coming from a related culture and sung in a similar language as their own.…”

“…Other variables identify in what order the songs are presented during the contest ('order t j ') and whether or not the performers represent the host country in a particular year (dummy 'host t j '). These factors are considered, as there is some evidence that the order in which performances are viewed influences the points awarded by the jury, see Flôres and Ginsburgh (1996) and Haan et al (2005). The gender of the performer may have some influence as well, as shown for another competition in Ginsburgh and Van Ours (2003).…”

“…Haan et al (2005) and Ginsburgh and Noury (2006), we could ignore certain subtle voting patterns when some effects offset each other on the aggregate level. Moreover, under this assumption it is impossible to investigate the often heard suspicions and accusations that politics and international relations dictate a lot of the voting and that, e.g.…”