Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action

Abstract

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

“…Despite its importance, our ability to understand and attribute multi-annual to decadal changes in climate is immature, as evidenced by the recent debate over the slowdown in global surface warming (Medhaug et al, 2017). To address this, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has set up a Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (LHA-EPESC) with three major themes (Findell et al, 2022): (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change;…”

AsiaPEX: Challenges and Prospects in Asian Precipitation Research

“…We have achieved various practical applications (Hong and Kim 2015;Kim et al 2020). In particular, the WCRP Lighthouse Activities provide us a systematic vision to address the needs of the general population (Findell et al 2022, Polcher et al 2021.…”

A large ensemble illustration of how record-shattering heat records can endure

“…Not all extremes display such sensitivity (Naveau et al 2020), and even heat extremes occur through a variety of different processes in different locations (Parker et al 2014, Risbey et al 2018b. Future work will address the representation of a range of climate extremes in large ensembles (Findell et al 2022) and the extent to which large sample requirements apply to other types of extreme event. These results on the enduring nature of record-shattering heat records would not apply under different conditions to those examined here, such as when the extreme is not highly sensitive to weather patterns, or when there is a regime change in the processes governing the extreme.…”