Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes

Abstract

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‘Falling Leaves Return To Their Roots’: Taiwanese‐Americans Consider Return Migration

“…To be sure, many studies show that return rates increase at this stage of life (OECD, ; Percival, ). Yet, they also show that, regardless of age, more migrants express the intention to return than actually do (Van den Berg & Weynandt, ). Thus, planning a return at retirement may be more a matter of sustaining ‘the myth of return’ than actually doing so (Anwar, ).…”

Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration

“…Individuals' inability to realize their intentions to migrate might also be linked to a poor health condition (van Dalen and Henkens (2013)). van den Berg and Weynandt (2013) …nd that age and the feeling of being disadvantaged because of one's origins contribute to explain the gap between return intentions and actual stay. Hooijen et al (2020) argue that recent university graduates are less likely to realize their intention to leave the region of study if they accumulated location-speci…c capital.…”

“…Large numbers of people migrate each year in the hopes of improving their lot. Despite the high stakes of migrating, substantial survey evidence suggests that migrants systematically mispredict their length of stay (Schoorl (2011) for the Netherlands, Adda et al (2006); van Baalen and Muller (2008); van den Berg and Weynandt (2013) for Germany, Agyeman (2011) for Italy and Spain, Alberts and Hazen (2005) for the US, and Achenbach (2017) for Japan). Speci…cally, signi…cant proportions of migrants end up staying longer in the destination country than they intended upon arrival, sometimes even staying permanently.…”

“…Individual-level shocks lead to unexpected staying on average only if migrants hold systematically biased beliefs over the distributions of such shocks. 1 Our approach is thus complementary to research explaining the heterogeneity in staying behavior and identifying factors that correlate with the likelihood of staying longer than intended -such as speci…c life events (de Groot et al (2011); Bettin et al (2018)), high job satisfaction (Waldorf (1995)), age and feeling disadvantaged (van den Berg and Weynandt (2013)), as well as socio-economic and political conditions in the home country (Kirdar (2013)). From this perspective, this study is the …rst to identify pessimism about the destination country as a general and systematic cause for migrants to stay unexpectedly.…”

Holding the door slightly open: Germany's migrants' return intentions and realizations

“… 25 25 For comparative actual returnee estimates previously estimated, one could refer, for instance, to Dustmann (2003a) or van den Berg and Weynandt (2012)/(2013). Hence, this article additionally uses the same sample restrictions for a proper comparison with the former study's estimates (see Table A3).…”