Explaining Peace Duration through Foreign Aid and Civil War Outcome

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between foreign aid and civil war outcome and analyzes the impact these factors have on peace duration in a post-conflict environment. Previous literature has focused on the factors of war duration and civil war outcome (Brandt et al. 2008;, while other scholars have observed the effect that the amount or timing of foreign aid has on political stability (Breuning and Ishiyama 2007). Previous research has not, however, examined the relationship between civil conflict outcome and sources of foreign aid to observe how the interaction of these factors may affect peace duration in a post-conflict environment.The theory holds that bilateral aid provides biased support when giving aid to recipient countries by supporting one group over another, which may decrease peace duration depending on the civil war outcome. Interaction variables are created to measure the relationship between civil conflict outcome and foreign aid in a post-conflict environment. A logit regression model is used to test my theory regarding the relationship between the interaction of foreign aid and civil war outcome with peace duration. Ultimately, I found that the relationship between the civil war outcomes of government victory and truce and a high bilateral aid ratio has a significant effect on peace duration. Specifically, a high proportion of bilateral aid in a truce civil war outcome has a greater probability of durable peace than a government victory in a post-conflict environment.