Explaining Subnational Infant Mortality and Poverty Rates: What Can We Learn from Night-Time Lights?

Abstract

Given very little standard statistical data available on infant mortality and poverty rates for subnational areas in many developing countries, demographic studies for these areas have been limited. This paper tests the possibility of using variables produced by measures of global nighttime light radiance, so as to predict infant mortality rates for subnational areas and Small Area Estimates of poverty rates for developing countries. Both OLS regression and spatial models are used to predict the two rates. The results suggest that lights data can provide useful information for estimating both rates, but the model fit varies largely across countries with different levels of energy consumption and economic development. Analysis yields to the conclusion that (1) nighttime lights data provide more information for poor countries, and (2) the model fit is also country-specific. Thus, the current study demonstrates that unconventional data can be used for certain areas where conventional surveys or standard statistics are unreliable or unavailable.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

“…The covariates were average years of educational attainment of women aged 15–49 years, 34 , 35 prevalence of wasting and stunting in children younger than 5 years, 36 Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate, 24 a proxy index of fertility (based on the ratio of women aged 15–49 years and children under 5 years) per pixel, 37 , 38 and total population. 39 Additionally, we included several covariate layers that were reflective of potential environmental and infrastructural factors related to overall development and thus child survival (ie, an enhanced vegetation index, 40 daytime land-surface temperature, 40 proportion of land under irrigation, 41 urban-rural distinction, 42 brightness of night-time light from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, 43 , 44 and accessibility to cities with populations greater than 50 000). 45 When several years' worth of data were available, we either took the synoptic mean from available years in each estimation period or used the mid-period-year estimate.…”

Nighttime lights as a proxy for human development at the local level

“…More importantly, we contribute to the nascent literature on the relation between nighttime lights and human development more broadly defined. Nighttime lights have been found to be correlated with infant mortality and poverty rates at the level of provinces [ 25 ], but we are not aware of any study that looks at various human development outcomes, e.g., related to education, and at a higher spatial resolution. This may be surprising given that the question about the relation between nighttime lights and human development is reminiscent of the old debate on whether GDP per capita is a proxy not only for economic development narrowly defined, but also for human development more broadly defined (see [ 26 ] for a recent contribution to this old debate).…”

Nighttime Lights and Population Migration: Revisiting Classic Demographic Perspectives with an Analysis of Recent European Data

“…There are, however, very limited studies that investigate lights and dynamic population processes, such as fertility, mortality, or migration. Outliers to the general trend include studies using lights to verify European population decline as a result of low fertility rates [26], studies predicting infant mortality level in Chinese counties [27,28], and studies mapping refugee populations in Africa and the Middle East [29].…”