Explaining support for Brexit among parliamentary candidates: the case of Wales

Abstract

The 2016 EU referendum was a key moment in the history of the United Kingdom. It has changed the course of the country and continues to define political battlegrounds. Despite research on which voters cast their ballot for Leave having become a minor industry in recent years, we still know little about what factors motivated our politicians to do so. Using original data from the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study, this paper explains support for Brexit among parliamentary candidates in Wales. It finds that both candidates' socio-economic profile and political attitudes influenced their decision to vote Leave in 2016. The strongest determinants of Leave vote were candidates' views on how the EU works; how democratic it is and how much influence it can exert. Candidates' occupational background and policy concerns were also relevant, but their effects were slightly weaker. These findings highlight that there are important similarities between what influenced politicians and voters to cast their ballot for Leave, but also some salient differences.

The 2016 EU Referendum: Explaining Support for Brexit Among Would-Be British MPs

“…This body of evidence is, however, less extensive. 5 Heppell et al (2017b), Lynch and Whitaker (2018) and Moore (2018) examine Leave vote among the members of the parliamentary Conservative Party, and Trumm (2020) explores Brexit support among candidates at the 2016 devolved election in Wales. They find that political attitudes played a key role in understanding their support for Leave, whereas the socio-demographic characteristics do not appear to have had a significant effect on politicians’ EU referendum vote choice.…”

“…The focus on the members of the parliamentary Conservative Party is unsurprising as the European issue has had a major effect on the Conservative Party in recent times, but it does limit our understanding of which politicians voted for Leave. Similarly, the recent study by Trumm (2020) only focuses on Leave support among politicians in one part of the United Kingdom. It is important to extend the range of politicians whose behaviour at the EU referendum is examined.…”

“…While the literature of voters is now well-established, the study of support for Brexit among political elites remains in its infancy. There is an emerging literature focusing on which politicians cast their ballot for Leave in 2016 (Heppell et al, 2017b; Lynch and Whitaker, 2018; Moore, 2018; Trumm, 2020), but to date, the focus of these studies has largely been limited to members of the parliamentary Conservative Party and candidates at the 2016 devolved election in Wales.…”