Explaining the Evolution of Poverty: The Case of Mozambique

Arndt, Channing; Hussain, M. Azhar; Jones, Edward; Nhate, Virgulino; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

doi:10.1093/ajae/aas080

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…However, since the mid‐1990s the country's development trends have improved considerably. The economy has grown rapidly (even if the large‐scale capital‐intensive “mega‐project” investments are excluded and despite a recent downward adjustment to past agricultural growth (see Arndt et al, 2011a)). Improved economic conditions have been felt by most segments of the population, albeit not in equal measure.…”

Section: Mozambiquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tarp et al (2002) showed that reducing these marketing margins results in strong poverty reductions, particularly if agricultural productivity rises simultaneously. Recent work showed that high marketing margins, slow agricultural growth, and external terms of trade shocks explain the recent slowdown in poverty reduction despite rapid national economic growth over the period 2002/03 to 2008/09 (Arndt et al, 2011a).…”

Section: Mozambiquementioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

Arndt

Chinowsky

Strzepek

et al. 2012

Review Development Economics

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Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate–infrastructure model based on stressor–response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy‐wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long‐run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.

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Section: Mozambiquementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mozambiquementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

Arndt

Chinowsky

Strzepek

et al. 2012

Review Development Economics

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“…ESKOM and state regulators agreed to double tariffs during 2010–2015 (RSA, ). This has heightened inflationary pressures, which are felt disproportionately by poorer households who spend a greater share of their incomes on energy (Arndt et al ., forthcoming). Higher tariffs may also worsen unemployment if businesses close down or shed workers to curb production costs (Altman et al ., ).…”

Section: Electricity and Coal In South Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although there has been some minor success in promoting export crops, such as cashews, Mozambique historically has concentrated on subsistence farming. Recently, poverty reduction has slowed in Mozambique, primarily as a result of stagnant agricultural production (Arndt et al ., forthcoming). As a result, the government has been eager to find new opportunities for agricultural growth.…”

Section: Biofuels In Mozambiquementioning

confidence: 99%

The Political Economy of Green Growth: Cases From Southern Africa

Resnick

Tarp

Thurlow

2012

Public Admin & Development

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SUMMARY The concept of Green Growth implies that a wide range of developmental objectives, such as job creation, economic prosperity and poverty alleviation, can be easily reconciled with environmental sustainability. This article, however, argues that rather than being win–win, Green Growth is similar to most types of policy reforms that advocate the acceptance of short‐term adjustment costs in the expectation of long‐term gains. In particular, Green Growth policies often encourage developing countries to redesign their national strategies in ways that might be inconsistent with natural comparative advantages and past investments. In turn, there are often sizeable anti‐reform coalitions whose interests may conflict with a Green Growth agenda. We illustrate this argument by using case studies of Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa, which are engaged in development strategies that involve inorganic fertilizers, biofuel production and coal‐based energy, respectively. Each of these countries is pursuing an environmentally suboptimal strategy but nonetheless addressing critical development needs, including food security, fuel and electricity. We show that adopting a Green Growth approach would not only be economically costly but also generate substantial domestic resistance, especially among the poor. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…In contrast, slowly rising and then slowly falling floodwaters can leave infrastructure largely intact (especially paved roads). The economic analyses for Mozambique in Strzepek et al (2010) and Arndt et al (2011) assumed that floodwaters were moving rapidly and thus repair costs were approximated by new road construction costs. The current analysis assumes that only a share of floods are strongly damaging.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor–Response Model

Chinowsky

Arndt

2012

Review Development Economics

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Decision‐makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering‐based models are used as a basis to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long‐term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change.

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Explaining the Evolution of Poverty: The Case of Mozambique

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

The Political Economy of Green Growth: Cases From Southern Africa

Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor–Response Model

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