Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

Urdal, Henrik; Hoelscher, Kristian

doi:10.1080/03050629.2012.697427

Cited by 78 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In addition, cities are attractive sites for dyadic contests between governments and rebels, as there are likely to be far more opportunities to recruit in such spaces. Politically violent actors take advantage of social geography to make the most of their attacks, retributions, and recruitments; cities have large, potentially aggrieved populations for conflict “labor,” as well as potential support (Goldstone ; Urdal and Hoeshler ).…”

Section: Changes In Urban and Rural Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…“Fragile cities” are emerging as a new category of societal disorder (Graham , , ; Muggah ), wherein frail and failed conditions normally associated with severely underdeveloped states are applied to urban centers. Recent research has confirmed the “urbanization” of violence (see Urdal and Hoeshler ; Buhaug and Urdal ), but has not offered a consistent narrative as to why conflict hotspots have shifted into developing cities. Different interpretations privilege alternative factors as potential explanations for the rise of “fragile cities”: The “Demographic Conflict” literature attributes violence to “urban youth bulges” (see Urdal for a critique) and migration (Reuveny ), despite inconsistent empirical evidence for both proposed causal mechanisms (see Fox and Hoelscher ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Urban Violence Patterns Across African States

Raleigh

2015

Int Stud Rev

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This analysis of urban political violence across Africa considers why the proportion and frequency of conflict is increasing in urban areas while decreasing in rural areas. The decline of formally organized violence in predominantly rural areas, and the increase of more variegated forms of political opposition and conflict in urban zones, is interrogated through demographic and grievance‐based explanations. Urban violence displays a range of agents, goals, intensities, and triggers and is alternatively regarded as a response to the lack of capacity and poor governance found in urban contexts, or to the changing demographic and political character of African states. Yet, the multiple, low‐intensity forms of urban violence present—including militia attacks, communal contests, riots, and protests—indicate a change in the collective action capabilities and goals of modern conflict agents. These goals are themselves shaped by the experience of mounting urban grievances, but the ethnic and regional heterogeneity in urban areas prevents substantial collective action to counter the urban marginalization practiced by many African governments. Despite the low‐intensity nature of urban threats, this compounded violence is a substantial security threat across developing states and is leading to the rise of the “fragile city.”

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Section: Changes In Urban and Rural Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Violence Patterns Across African States

Raleigh

2015

Int Stud Rev

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“…A related set of studies has investigated the causal relationships between population growth, density and demographic composition, and the emergence of social disorder events. Urdal and Hoelscher (2012), for example, analyze the relationship between national-level youth bulges and social disorder events (e.g. demonstrations, strikes, riots, acts of terrorism) in major Asian and African cities.…”

Section: Ecological Fallacy Risks In Social Disorder Studies Current mentioning

confidence: 99%

Between fallacy and feasibility? Dealing with the risk of ecological fallacies in the quantitative study of protest mobilization and conflict

Demarest¹,

Langer²,

Meuleman³

2019

Ask: Research and Methods

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In recent years, the quantitative study of conflict has increasingly focused on small-scale and/or localized conflicts in the developing world. In this paper, we analyze and critically reflect upon a major methodological shortcoming of many studies in this field of research. We argue that by using group-or macro-level empirical data and modelling techniques, while at the same time theoretically underpinning observed empirical associations with individual-level mechanisms, many of these studies risk committing an ecological fallacy. The individual-level mechanism on which many studies rely concerns the presence of grievances which mobilize people to participate in contentious politics. This motivational approach was also present in early studies on protest mobilization in Western societies, which often relied on similar research designs. However, subsequent advances in this literature and the use of methods that were targeted more directly at the individual level uncovered that grievances alone cannot explain mobilization and that organizational capabilities and complex psychological mechanisms of belonging also form part of the puzzle. While drawing on conflict events as well as survey data from Africa, we demonstrate empirically that here, as well, inferring micro-level relations and dynamics from macro-level empirical models can lead to erroneous interpretations and inferences. Hence, we argue that to improve our understanding of conflict mobilization in the developing world, especially for conflicts with low levels of violence, it is necessary to substantially expand our methodological toolbox beyond macro-level analyses.

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“…Political disorder, in its many forms, has yet to be explored thoroughly with respect to regime hybridity. While some attempt has been made, it fails to explore a causal mechanism that is at work (Urdal and Hoelscher 2012). It is these three significant gaps in the hybrid regime literature which this paper hopes to aid in filling.…”

Section: Critiquesmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Four works that have been most influential in the realm of overlap between hybrid regimes, and political violence. These are the works by Urdal and Hoelscher (2012), Goldsmith (2010), Hegre et al (2001), and Geddes (2018). All of these works have directly made the link between regime type and political disorder.…”

Section: The Hybrid-disorder Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

Hybridity and political disorder : a mixed method approach to understanding the hybrid regime.

Kleinsteuber¹

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This thesis focuses on two central questions; first, does regime hybridity lead to an increased propensity for political disorder; and second, what specific regime level characteristics are responsible for the increased propensity. The theoretical basis for this study is founded in the understanding that the duality of Hybrid regimes ensures that they receive neither the benefit of Authoritarian, coercive force nor Democratic plasticity and thus are unable to prevent political disorder. Therefore, during periods of political transition leaders in these regimes not only cannot prevent these events but may be incentivized to allow or even encourage certain events as a means for citizens to vent political frustration. Hybrid regimes are a topic central to comparative politics, yet work is only now beginning to study specific facets and characteristics of these regimes. Thus, scholars are just beginning to explore hybrid regime characteristics and how they impact critical political activities, is especially true concerning a topic of utmost importance, political disorder. The paper utilizes the PRIO data on Urban Social Disorder to first verify that Hybrid regimes suffer from an increased propensity for political disorder, before proceeding to a case study on Algeria. This case study v focuses on journalistic accounts of political disorder.

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Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

Cited by 78 publications

References 39 publications

Urban Violence Patterns Across African States

Urban Violence Patterns Across African States

Between fallacy and feasibility? Dealing with the risk of ecological fallacies in the quantitative study of protest mobilization and conflict

Hybridity and political disorder : a mixed method approach to understanding the hybrid regime.

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