Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty

You-Ting, Wu,; Liang, Yiqing; Yan-Ning, Kuo,; Lehner, Flavio; Previdi, Michael; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Lan, C. W.

doi:10.1029/2022gl100745

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…A reduction in the seasonal amplitude of AA with increased CO 2 forcing was also found in a study using a single model [41]. That, and another study [48], also found that the peak in AA shifted from late autumn to early winter over the 21st century, with our results here suggesting that is caused by a decrease in autumn AA, while winter AA remains approximately constant.…”

Section: Model Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 90%

Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections

Hay,

Screen,

Catto

2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic Amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large.

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Section: Model Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 90%

Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections

Hay,

Screen,

Catto

2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…There is also a strong seasonality to Arctic amplification with the largest amplification occurring in the winter months due to the combination of a more stably-stratified atmosphere [15], the effective heat capacity of sea ice [21], and ocean-mediated seasonal transfer of energy between ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere [22]. This seasonality is expected to change under increased CO 2 forcing with the peak moving later in the season [23,24]. While there is not a consensus on the relative importance of the processes behind Arctic amplification, many approaches including the evaluation of climate models using radiative kernels have shown that the sea-ice albedo feedback and atmospheric stability are two of the most important processes [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic amplification has already peaked

Davy¹,

Griewank

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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It has been demonstrated that the Arctic has warmed at almost four times the global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. However, this rapid Arctic warming is tightly linked to the retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, and so may be expected to weaken as the Arctic transitions to seasonal ice cover. Here we show evidence from gridded observations and climate reanalysis that Arctic amplification peaked sometime in the early 2000s. This occurred concurrently with a maximum in the rate of loss of sea ice area, thickness, and volume. From CMIP6 projections we see that arctic amplification is unlikely to be so high again at any future point in the 21st century except in the lowest emissions scenarios in which global temperatures stabilize while the Arctic continues to warm.

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“…This finding was further supported through a decomposition of the Arctic LRF into "upper" and "lower" troposphere contributions, showing that this feedback arises primarily as an atmospheric response to the local sea-ice loss, although it is reduced in subpolar latitudes by an enhanced poleward atmospheric energy transport 10 . The uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is dominated by model differences (rather than internal climate variability or even scenario uncertainty) and shifts gradually from autumn to winter over the 21 st century, in line with a dominant influence of the sea ice retreat that also shows a similar seasonal shift 11 .…”

Section: Confidential Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 92%

Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification

Douville

2023

Preprint

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The Arctic near-surface warming is much faster than its global counterpart. Yet, this Arctic amplification occurs a rate that is season, model and forcing-dependent. The present study aims at using temperature observations and reanalyses to constrain the projections of Arctic climate during the November-to-March season. Results show that the recently observed four-fold warming ratio is not entirely due to a human influence, and will decrease with increasing radiative forcings. Global versus regional temperature observations lead to complementary constraints on the projections. When Arctic amplification is defined as the additional polar warming relative to global warming, model uncertainties are narrowed by more than 30% after constraint. Similar results are obtained for projected changes in the Arctic sea ice extent (40%) and when using sea ice observations to constrain the polar warming (37%), thereby confirming the key role of sea ice as a positive but model, season and time-dependent surface feedback.

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Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty

Abstract: Arctic amplification (AA) is a phenomenon of anthropogenic climate change in which the near-surface air temperatures (SATs) in the Arctic increase more rapidly than do those in the rest of the globe (

Cited by 6 publications

References 58 publications

Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections

Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections

Arctic amplification has already peaked

Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification

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